- In one line: The downturn is gathering momentum.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Core price rises have slowed sharply, supporting an MPC pause next month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: More evidence that core price rises are slowing.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
- Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- November's month-to-month rise in the core CPI was the smallest, adjusted for seasonality, for 11 months.
- This isn't a fluke; recent falls in shipping costs and commodity prices point to a sharp fall in goods inflation.
- Services inflation is a few months from peaking, but it will fall quickly in 2023 too, as wage growth slows.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: At last! A clear slowing in the rate of core price rises.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Households are saving more than usual, taking on less credit, and increasing ad-hoc mortgage repayments.
Firms also are choosing to delever; October’s net repayment of external finance was the second largest ever.
House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October; we expect them to fall further this winter.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Incoming data are consistent with our forecast for a sharp fall in house purchases and an 8% drop in prices.
The MPC, however, won’t keep Bank Rate at 4% indefinitely; house prices should rebound in the mid-2020s.
Mortgage payments’ share of incomes will not return to 2010s levels; hefty rent rises have raised the floor.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Still no sign of a slowing in the pace of core price rises yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for an above-consensus jump in CPI inflation to 10.9% in October, from 10.2% in September.
- Food prices continued to rise quickly and energy prices soared; core CPI inflation likely remained high too.
- The BRC’s non-food shop prices index leapt; services inflation likely was supported by education and rents.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
- Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
- Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
