Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

health

7 Dec 2021 Real-Time Data Show Clear Hit to Services Firms from Omicron

  • Omicron fears already have led people to travel and visit restaurants, shops and cinemas less often.
  • Booster jabs are containing hospital admissions, but people still have good reasons to avoid being infected.
  • While boosters and school holidays will weigh on cases, Omicron and Christmas festivities will keep R>1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 Nov 2021 Forecast Review: MPC Caught Between Higher Inflation and Omicron

  • Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
  • The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
  • The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Nov 2021 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Leaves the U.K. as the G7's Straggler Again

  • U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
  • Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
  • Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Nov 2021 Is it Already Clear the End of the Furlough Scheme has been Painless?

  • Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
  • Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
  • October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Nov 2021 September GDP will Give the MPC Further Pause for Thought

  • We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
  • Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
  • Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Oct 2021 A Budget with an Eye on the Next Election, not Near-Term Popularity

  • The Chancellor spent only about half of the windfall stemming from the OBR's rosier economic forecasts...
  • ...In order to build scope to cut taxes before the next election, while still meeting his new fiscal targets.
  • The OBR's new GDP forecasts are too upbeat, while its debt interest forecast is too low, but this won't matter.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

14 Oct 2021 Recovery Sluggish Even Prior to the Withdrawal of Fiscal Support

  • August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
  • Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
  • We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Sept 2021 July GDP to Undershoot the Consensus with a No-Change Print

  • GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
  • Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
  • A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Aug 2021 Employment has Risen Briskly, but will Fall Back when Furlough Ends

  • Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
  • Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
  • High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 July 2021 The Peak for Covid-19 Cases is Within Sight

Growth in new Covid-19 cases has eased in recent days, bringing hope that infections will top out well below the 100K-a-day level forewarned by the new Health Secretary after his appointment last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2021 April GDP Shows Q2 Rebound on Track, But Progress will Slow in H2

We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 June 2021 GDP Likely Jumped to Within 4% of its Pre-Covid Level in April

We expect April’s GDP report, released on Friday, to show that the economy continued to recover at a rapid rate in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 May 2021 The Economy Still is Convalescing, No Sign of a Consumer Boom

Near-real-time indicators suggest that the recovery in consumers' spending has lost some momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 May 2021 Health Spending Likely Drove Above- Consensus GDP Growth in March

We expect the March GDP report, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered renewed momentum even before restrictions on business activity had been lifted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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