Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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gilt

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak's second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

16 Feb 2021 Weight Changes will Prevent CPI Inflation Dipping in January

Weight Changes will Prevent CPI Inflation Dipping in January

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Feb 2021 The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

10 Feb 2021 Will the Yield Curve Continue to Steepen this Year?

Will the Yield Curve Continue to Steepen this Year?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Jan 2021 How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

7 Jan 2021 Will the Post-Brexit Deal Recovery in U.K. Equity Prices Gather Steam?

The last-minute trade deal signed with the E.U. has put a spring in the s tep of U.K. equities.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

18 Dec 2020 MPC Signals it Won't Hesitate to Ease Further in the Event of No-Deal

The MPC surprised nobody in voting unanimously this week to keep Bank Rate at 0.10% and to maintain its targets for the stock of government and corporate bond purchases at £875B...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Dec 2020 13:00U.K.

15 Dec 2020 MPC Unlikely to Declare a New Lower Bound for Rates This Week

Investors almost certainly are right to price-in only a minuscule chance that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below 0.10% on Thursday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

6 Nov 2020 The MPC Still Sees a Case for More Stimulus, Despite its QE Salvo

Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Oct 2020 20:10U.K.

18 Sept 2020 QE to Remain the Main Monetary Policy Tool, at Least Until the Spring

The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Aug 2020 20:10U.K.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

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