U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
gdp growth
- In one line: Still at the bottom of the G7 league table; support from rising investment will fade.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Public sector strikes mask a private sector recovery.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A recession in all but name.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- November's month-to-month rise in the core CPI was the smallest, adjusted for seasonality, for 11 months.
- This isn't a fluke; recent falls in shipping costs and commodity prices point to a sharp fall in goods inflation.
- Services inflation is a few months from peaking, but it will fall quickly in 2023 too, as wage growth slows.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Recovering from the Queen’s funeral; the trend still is downward sloping.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- S&P's survey points to another 0.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q4 and the likelihood of a faster decline in Q1.
- The employment index remained slightly above its long-run average, but it tends to lag the PMI.
- Output prices still are rising too fast for the MPC to tolerate, but leading indicators point to a slowing soon.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
- The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
- ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment essentially held steady in Q3, despite the fall in GDP; vacancies have remained at a high level too.
- But the rise in corporate borrowing costs looks set to be sharp enough to spark a wave of redundancies next year.
- Wage growth was far too strong for the MPC too tolerate in September, but timelier data point to a slowdown.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
- Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
- Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
- Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
- Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
- ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
- Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- We think GDP dropped by 0.5% month-to-month in September; business surveys were very weak...
- ...And the extra public holiday for the Queen’s funeral likely was more damaging than the Jubilee holiday.
- A peak-to-trough fall in GDP of about 2.3% likely lies ahead, similar in scale to the early 1990s recession.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The U-turn in the direction of fiscal policy has offset the better news on the outlook for borrowing costs.
- Plausible assumptions suggest Autumn Statement measures will inflict a 0.3% blow to GDP in 2023/24.
- A halving of energy price support for households in April would raise the path for CPI inflation by about 2.0pp.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
