Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

gdp growth

7 Dec 2021 Real-Time Data Show Clear Hit to Services Firms from Omicron

  • Omicron fears already have led people to travel and visit restaurants, shops and cinemas less often.
  • Booster jabs are containing hospital admissions, but people still have good reasons to avoid being infected.
  • While boosters and school holidays will weigh on cases, Omicron and Christmas festivities will keep R>1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Dec 2021 If Omicron Were Vaccine-Resistant, What Would the MPC do Next?

  • The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
  • Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
  • Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Dec 2021 Could the Economy Cope Next Year with the Rate Hike Markets Expect?

  • Markets expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate by nearly 100bp next year, the most in one year since 2007.
  • Rising mortgage rates likely would subtract just 0.1pp from households' disposable incomes next year...
  • ...But house prices would flatline, so 100bp is on the limit of feasibility; Omicron brings downside risks.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Dec 2021 Near-Real-Time Data Already Show a Small Hit to Activity from Omicron

  • The recent measures implemented by the government will have limited direct impact on the economy...
  • ...But near-real-time data already show consumers are pulling back a bit in response to the new variant.
  • A "lockdown lite" set of restrictions could subtract 1.5% from Q1 GDP; expect a 6% hit with a full lockdown.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

30 Nov 2021 Does October's Low Saving Signal Households' Mindset has Changed?

  • Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
  • ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
  • Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 Nov 2021 Forecast Review: MPC Caught Between Higher Inflation and Omicron

  • Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
  • The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
  • The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Nov 2021 Could Europe's Covid Wave Enfeeble Britain's Recovery?

  • The fast rollout of boosters has reduced U.K. hospital admissions, whereas they are surging across Europe.

    Economic contagion for the U.K. in the event of fresh restrictions in the rest of Europe should be modest.

    Manufacturing output would be unaffected, while the weaker euro will help to lower U.K. CPI inflation in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Nov 2021 Is Mr. Sunak's Fund for Future Tax Cuts Already Under Threat?

  • Rising interest payments are slowing the rate that public borrowing is falling.
  • Fiscal headroom probably will be just half that assumed in the October Budget…
  • …But Mr. Sunak still will have a free hand in signing off pre-election tax cuts in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Nov 2021 MPC Members are Keeping their Options Open, No Matter the Data

  • MPC members Bailey and Pill are sitting on the fence, despite last week's upside data surprises.
  • In a weekend paper interview, the Governor highlighted the public sector's role in driving the recovery.
  • We put the odds of a December rate hike at 60%, well below the 80-to-90% range priced by markets.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Nov 2021 Q4 Retail Sales won't be Stellar, Despite October's Good Start

  • October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
  • Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
  • A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Nov 2021 Near-Real-Time Indicators Signal a Further Slowdown in Q4

  • The ONS' BIC survey suggests the recovery stalled in both October and November
  • OpenTable figures show that the boom in dining out has faded in November.
  • We expect quarter-over-quarter GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in Q4, from 1.5%, and below the consensus, 1.1%

Gabriella DickensU.K.

18 Nov 2021 October's CPI Data Tip the Scales Towards a December Rate Hike

  • October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
  • The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
  • Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Nov 2021 Relief on Unemployment, but Still No Clarity on Wider Labour Market Slack

  • The 0.6% m/m rise in payroll employee numbers in October implies unemployment didn't rise post-furlough...
  • ...But the drop in median pay in October suggests many furloughed staff have returned only part-time.
  • Year-over-year growth in wages continued to slow in September; no sign of a wage-price spiral forming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Nov 2021 Exports are Still in the Doldrums; Brexit Clearly is to Blame

  • U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
  • It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
  • Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

15 Nov 2021 October's CPI Inflation Print Likely Will Exceeded the Consensus

  • Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
  • Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
  • Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Nov 2021 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Leaves the U.K. as the G7's Straggler Again

  • U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
  • Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
  • Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Nov 2021 October Payroll Employee Data to Help Gauge Furlough Scheme Fallout

  • Payroll employee numbers likely increased again in October, but not quite as strongly as in Q3.
  • The data, however, will not gauge underemployment; October's LFS data, released in December, remain key.
  • The recent drop in Covid-19 cases has largely been driven by school holidays; expect a renewed rise soon.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

10 Nov 2021 Political Risks Likely will Re-Emerge as a Drag on Sterling Next Year

  • The Conservatives' poll lead has virtually disappeared; we doubt it will re-emerge next year.
  • Higher inflation and rising interest rates will keep consumers' confidence weak.
  • A hung parliament would bring to the fore Brexit and Scottish independence risks again, weakening sterling.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Nov 2021 September GDP will Give the MPC Further Pause for Thought

  • We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
  • Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
  • Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence