Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

gdp growth

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 2023

  • In one line: Still at the bottom of the G7 league table; support from rising investment will fade.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, February 2023

  • In one line: Public sector strikes mask a private sector recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January

  • In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4

  • In one line: A recession in all but name. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November

  • In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Dec 2022 UK Monitor November's Fall in CPI Inflation Marks the Start of a Sharp Decline

  • November's month-to-month rise in the core CPI was the smallest, adjusted for seasonality, for 11 months.
  • This isn't a fluke; recent falls in shipping costs and commodity prices point to a sharp fall in goods inflation.
  • Services inflation is a few months from peaking, but it will fall quickly in 2023 too, as wage growth slows.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October

  • In one line: Recovering from the Queen’s funeral; the trend still is downward sloping. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Why Do We Expect Unemployment to Rise Sooner than Official Forecasters?

Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.

Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.

Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Nov 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Still Point to a Recession and Intense Price Pressures

  • S&P's survey points to another 0.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q4 and the likelihood of a faster decline in Q1.
  • The employment index remained slightly above its long-run average, but it tends to lag the PMI.
  • Output prices still are rising too fast for the MPC to tolerate, but leading indicators point to a slowing soon.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

23 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Chances of Public Borrowing Falling Below 3% of GDP are Remote

  • Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
  • The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
  • ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Stable Employment in Q3 Shouldn't Undermine Conviction in Future Falls

  • Employment essentially held steady in Q3, despite the fall in GDP; vacancies have remained at a high level too.
  • But the rise in corporate borrowing costs looks set to be sharp enough to spark a wave of redundancies next year.
  • Wage growth was far too strong for the MPC too tolerate in September, but timelier data point to a slowdown.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Britain will Be the First into Recession, and the Last One Out

  • The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
    and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
  • Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
  • Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September & Q3

  • In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Downturn in House Prices is Only Just Getting Started

  • Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
  • Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
  • Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Construction Output will Fall Twice as Sharply as GDP Next Year

  • The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
  • ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
  • Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

8 Nov 2022 UK Monitor September GDP Data to Reveal a Recession-Bound Economy

  • We think GDP dropped by 0.5% month-to-month in September; business surveys were very weak...
  • ...And the extra public holiday for the Queen’s funeral likely was more damaging than the Jubilee holiday.
  • A peak-to-trough fall in GDP of about 2.3% likely lies ahead, similar in scale to the early 1990s recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review, Same Dismal Outlook, but a Different Mix of Drivers

  • The U-turn in the direction of fiscal policy has offset the better news on the outlook for borrowing costs.
  • Plausible assumptions suggest Autumn Statement measures will inflict a 0.3% blow to GDP in 2023/24.
  • A halving of energy price support for households in April would raise the path for CPI inflation by about 2.0pp.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence