- In one line: Bolstering the case for the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 4.50% next month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Still at the bottom of the G7 league table; support from rising investment will fade.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Slowing trend in wage growth still visible, despite revisions.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Public sector strikes mask a private sector recovery.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: The clear slowdown in wage growth strengthens the case for an MPC pause.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A clear slowdown in private-sector wage growth boosts the chances of no further rate hikes.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A recession in all but name.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Continued growth in employment, and rapid wage gains, maintain the pressure for a 50bp hike next month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
- Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC; strong employment and wage data, but a healthier supply side performance.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Recovering from the Queen’s funeral; the trend still is downward sloping.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
- The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
- ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Wage growth is near its peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
- Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
- Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
