Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

gdp data

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March/April 2023

  • In one line: Bolstering the case for the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 4.50% next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 2023

  • In one line: Still at the bottom of the G7 league table; support from rising investment will fade.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, February/March 2023

  • In one line: Slowing trend in wage growth still visible, despite revisions.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, February 2023

  • In one line: Public sector strikes mask a private sector recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January/February 2023

  • In one line: The clear slowdown in wage growth strengthens the case for an MPC pause.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January

  • In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, December/January 2023

  • In one line: A clear slowdown in private-sector wage growth boosts the chances of no further rate hikes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4

  • In one line: A recession in all but name. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November/December 2022

  • In one line: Continued growth in employment, and rapid wage gains, maintain the pressure for a 50bp hike next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November

  • In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October/November 2022

  • In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC; strong employment and wage data, but a healthier supply side performance.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October

  • In one line: Recovering from the Queen’s funeral; the trend still is downward sloping. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Why Do We Expect Unemployment to Rise Sooner than Official Forecasters?

Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.

Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.

Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Nov 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Still Point to a Recession and Intense Price Pressures

  • S&P's survey points to another 0.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q4 and the likelihood of a faster decline in Q1.
  • The employment index remained slightly above its long-run average, but it tends to lag the PMI.
  • Output prices still are rising too fast for the MPC to tolerate, but leading indicators point to a slowing soon.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

23 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Chances of Public Borrowing Falling Below 3% of GDP are Remote

  • Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
  • The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
  • ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Britain will Be the First into Recession, and the Last One Out

  • The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
    and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
  • Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
  • Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September & Q3

  • In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Construction Output will Fall Twice as Sharply as GDP Next Year

  • The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
  • ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
  • Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence