Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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forecasts

7 May 2021 The MPC's New Forecasts Signal that Rate Expectations are too High

The MPC's New Forecasts Signal that Rate Expectations are too High

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th May 2021 18:00U.K.

27 Apr 2021 Will Public Borrowing Continue to Undershoot the OBR's Forecast?

Will Public Borrowing Continue to Undershoot the OBR's Forecast?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)26th Apr 2021 18:00U.K.

17 Mar 2021 RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Mar 2021 18:00U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR's new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Mar 2021 08:13U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Mar 2021 18:00U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Mar 2021 00:00U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2021 18:00U.K.

5 Feb 2021 Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Feb 2021 18:00U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

9 Dec 2020 GDP Likely to Dip Again in January, in Response to a Third Covid Wave

Near-real-time data suggest that economic activity has not fully recovered to October's level after England's lockdown ended on December 2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Dec 2020 18:10U.K.

26 Nov 2020 The Fiscal Repair Job will be Bigger than the OBR's Forecasts Imply

The OBR's new forecasts for public borrowing likely understate the scale of the necessary future fiscal consolidation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

24 Nov 2020 No Need to Rewrite Forecasts After November's Above-Consensus PMI

We're not rushing to revise our assessment of the scale of the economic damage wrought by the second lockdown, following the above-consensus reading of Markit's flash...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

17 Nov 2020 Covid-19 Case Data Imply Little Scope for Reopening in December

The latest Covid-19 data suggest the government will not simply be able to return to October's light-touch restrictions, when the second "lockdown" is due to end,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Nov 2020 18:00U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

6 Nov 2020 The MPC Still Sees a Case for More Stimulus, Despite its QE Salvo

Markets interpreted the MPC's decision yesterday to buy £150B more gilts next year, together with its latest forecasts and comments in the minutes, as a sign that the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

14 Oct 2020 The Labour Market is in the Eye of the Storm, More Job Losses Loom

On balance, yesterday's labour market statistics were better than we had expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Oct 2020 18:10U.K.

13 Oct 2020 High Inflation Expectations aren't Warranted by the Outlook

You wouldn't know from markets' inflation expectations that a large deflationary shock recently has hit the economy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Oct 2020 18:00U.K.

2 Oct 2020 Why Haven't Core Consumer Goods Prices Fallen Yet?

Higher core goods inflation is one of the main reasons why the headline rate of CPI inflation has exceeded economists' forecasts over the last few months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Oct 2020 18:00U.K.

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