Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

food

14 Sept 2021 The Consensus for August CPI Inflation Looks too Low

  • We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
  • Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
  • ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

  • Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
  • The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
  • We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Sept 2021 Hidden Slack will Rise More than the Unemployment Rate, Post-Furlough

  • The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
  • ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2021 The MPC Won't Hike Bank Rate Just After a Big Rise in NICs

  • Markets still expect the MPC to hike rates in Q2 2022, despite surprise plans to lift national insurance in April.
  • The tax hike will defer a full recovery in households' spending to the second half of next year.
  • The plans imply the Treasury does not expect the OBR to turn upbeat on the medium-term economic outlook.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Sept 2021 July GDP to Undershoot the Consensus with a No-Change Print

  • GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
  • Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
  • A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Aug 2021 Setting the Record Straight on Why Retail Sales Fell in July

  • The Delta variant is to blame for July's fall in retail sales, not the rain, zeal for dining out, or alleged shortages.
  • Surveys show households were less willing to visit both shops and services providers last month.
  • Retailers are unlikely to benefit from any future recovery in consumers' confidence.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Aug 2021 CPI Base Effects Distract from July's Slowing in Core Price Rises

  • The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
  • CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
  • ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Aug 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Sharply in July, Taking the Consensus by Surprise

  • CPI inflation probably declined to 2.1% in July from 2.5% in June, below the consensus, 2.3%.
  • Clothing prices appear to have fallen sharply, as usual; they dropped only marginally a year ago.
  • Surveys suggest the pace of increases in catering services prices has slowed down.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Aug 2021 Employment Growth Likely Topped the Consensus in June

We look for above-consensus three-month-on- three-month growth in employment of 125K in June.

June's PAYE data were very strong, while a cohort reporting a low employment rate left the sample.

Year-over-year growth in wages likely rose further, but the underlying trend isn't troubling for the MPC.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Aug 2021 Furlough Usage isn't Falling Fast Enough to Signal a Painless End in Q4

The proportion of staff furloughed fell to 5.7% at the end of June, from 7.5% a month earlier...
...But surveys point to only a marginal fall in early July, and still high usage in fully recovered sectors.
Firms likely won't fully relinquish recent productivity gains; the employment rate will drop back in Q4.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2021 Rising Covid-19 Cases Temporarily Slowed the Recovery in July

The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.

The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.

Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2021 Brexit is Limiting Trade and will be a Key Constraint on the Recovery

On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably...
...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same extent as its peers.
Brexit is one reason why we expect the recovery in GDP to slow as it approaches its pre-Covid level.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 July 2021 Amazon Prime Day Likely Launched Retail Sales to New Heights in June

We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 July 2021 Covid's Third Wave has Stopped the Recovery Temporarily in its Tracks

Many indicators suggest that the economic recovery is stalling in the face of the third wave of Covid-19.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 July 2021 Inflation Data to Force Early End to QE, but a 2022 Rate Hike isn't Likely

We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 July 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Rose Further in June, on Course for 3% by Year-End

We think the June consumer prices report, released next Wednesday, will show that CPI inflation rose to 2.2%, from 2.1% in May.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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