Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

fiscal policy

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, February

  • In one line: Low medium-term inflation forecasts signal the MPC doesn’t intend to hike rates any further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review, Same Dismal Outlook, but a Different Mix of Drivers

  • The U-turn in the direction of fiscal policy has offset the better news on the outlook for borrowing costs.
  • Plausible assumptions suggest Autumn Statement measures will inflict a 0.3% blow to GDP in 2023/24.
  • A halving of energy price support for households in April would raise the path for CPI inflation by about 2.0pp.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Fiscal Announcements, September 2022

  • In one line: £31B of savings found, a further £40B or so to go.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Fiscal Policy, September 2022

  • In one line: Fiscal U-turn insufficient to avert a credit-led recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: Macro policy outlook

  • In one line: Markets now are pricing-in an emergency BoE hike this week; that’s not our base case.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the MPC Pick Prolonged High Inflation or a Mortgage Crisis

  • A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
  • Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
  • Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the Better News on CPI Inflation Keep Coming?

  • The month-to-month change in the August core CPI exceeded its seasonal norm by the least this year.
  • The recent decline in commodity prices suggests core CPI inflation will fall sharply next year.
  • Services inflation will be stickier, but the current support from energy price rises and VAT changes will fade.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Wage Growth Remains too High for the MPC, But that will Change in 2023

  • Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
  • We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
  • For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Sept 2022 UK Monitor A Recession Now Looks Unlikely, following Bold Energy Price Action

  • The average household will spend less on energy over the next six months than during the last six.
  • So a winter recession now looks unlikely, and the MPC can return to focussing on core CPI inflation.
  • Fiscal policy will stabilise demand, not lift it; job market slack still looks set to emerge, limiting rate hikes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's CPI Report will Temper Bets on a 75bp Rate Hike

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 9.9% in August, from 10.1% in
    July, returning to the level forecast by the MPC.
  • A slump in motor fuel CPI inflation likely dominated the further pick-up in food inflation.
  • BRC data show the pace of core goods price rises eased in August; July's large jump in rents won't be repeated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Capex will Continue to Recover, Despite the Risk of Recession

  • Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
  • We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
  • But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence