Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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15 Feb 2021 Weakness in Capex and Exports will Temper the Consumer-led Rebound

Weakness in Capex and Exports will Temper the Consumer-led Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

9 Feb 2021 Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

4 Nov 2020 Manufacturing will be a Bright Spot Through the Bleak Winter

Equity markets are correctly concluding that the outlook for U.K.-listed manufacturers is brighter than for most other firms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

29 Apr 2020 Would a Depreciation of Sterling be Stimulative this Time?

Sterling's shaky performance so far this year-- the trade-weighted index currently is 3% below its end-2019 level and was down 8% at the peak of the mid-March market...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Apr 2020 20:20U.K.

11 Mar 2020 Time for the Government to Reveal its Virus Response

We expect the Budget today to underwhelm investors who are eager to see a quick and powerful government response to the coronavirus outbreak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Mar 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Mar 2020 14:10U.K.

25 Feb 2020 Markets Look Complacent About the Outcome of E.U. Trade Talks

We find it remarkable, after the market volatility induced by the two Brexit deadlines in 2019, that investors do not foresee another bump in the road at the end of this ye ar,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

13 Feb 2020 Could Inventory Rundowns Scupper the Q1 GDP Pick-up?

Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth last year was buffeted by the accumulation, and subsequent depletion, of inventories, around the two Brexit deadlines in March and October.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Feb 2020 13:00U.K.

12 Feb 2020 GDP Data Highlight Scope for a Consumer-led Rebound in Q1

The latest GDP data confirm that the economy ended last year on a very weak note.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

13 Dec 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Hit Bottom in November, a Pick-Up Lies Ahead

Next week is so crammed full of data releases that we need to preview November's consumer price data early, in the eye of the storm of the general election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

12 Dec 2019 A Guide to the Drama on Election Night

Today's general election looks set to be a closer race than opinion polls suggested two weeks ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

11 Dec 2019 Recession Risks Remain Low, Despite Stagnant GDP in October

Markets rightly placed little weight on October's below-consensus GDP report yesterday, and still think that the chances of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next six...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Oct 2019 14:00U.K.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Oct 2019 20:10U.K.

26 July 2019 A Guide to Gauging How Much No- Deal Brexit Risk is Priced-in

In our view, the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31 have not surged just because Boris Johnson has become Prime Minister and is gesticulating wildly at the Despatch Box.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th May 2019 17:10U.K.

26 April 2019 Will an Inventory Unwind Stymie the Economy in Q2?

The economy's resilience in the first quarter of this year, in the midst of heightened Brexit uncertainty, can be attributed partly to a boost from no-deal Brexit...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Apr 2019 14:10U.K.

11 April 2019 Above-Trend GDP Growth in Q1 Puts the Spotlight Back on the MPC

The economy has remained remarkably resilient in the face of intense political uncertainty.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Apr 2019 14:10U.K.

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