Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
- U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
- It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
- Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.
- U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
- Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
- Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- On balance, we still think the MPC won't act next month; Mr. Bailey hinted October's labour data may not suffice.
- The MPC's inflation forecasts seemingly support markets' view that rates will rise to 1.0% by the end of 2022...
- ...But they are based on implausible energy price figures; its spare capacity forecasts point to a lower rate path.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- The MPC's view the output gap has closed means it must counter plans for higher government spending.
- But the Committee can wait until 2022 to act; the recovery is faltering, and underlying inflation is not high.
- The MPC will see key jobs data if it waits until December; higher rates are coming, but not just yet.
- The Chancellor spent only about half of the windfall stemming from the OBR's rosier economic forecasts...
- ...In order to build scope to cut taxes before the next election, while still meeting his new fiscal targets.
- The OBR's new GDP forecasts are too upbeat, while its debt interest forecast is too low, but this won't matter.
- Households' medium-term inflation expectations fell by 0.1pp to 3.7% in October, according to YouGov/Citi.
- Nearly all the rise in expectations can be explained by current inflation rates; no sign of de-anchoring.
- Manufacturing output isn't that sensitive to energy prices; we continue to expect modest growth in Q4.
- This month's Stamp Duty change has left housing unscathed; we look for a 0.5% q/q rise in house prices in Q4.
- House prices, however, will flatline in H1 2022; two-year fixed rate mortgage rates will jump by 60bp in Q4...
- ...The squeeze on households' real income, as inflation rises and taxes increase, also will subdue the market.
- The MPC's preferred measure of underlying services inflation merely matched its 2010s average in September.
- CPI inflation is on course to rise to a peak of about 4.8% in April, from 3.1% in September...
- ...But the rise will be driven largely by higher energy prices; core inflation should remain well-behaved.
- Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
- The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
- Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations; workers don't expect wages to keep pace.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
- The OBR likely will revise up its forecast for debt interest payments in 2022/23 by nearly 1% of GDP.
- Interest payments will be boosted by the outlook for high inflation and markets' expectations for rate hikes.
- The MPC's plans to shrink the APF will mean more debt is financed at prevailing gilt rates, not Bank Rate.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
- Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
- Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.
- Revisions to Q2 GDP data brightened the picture of the economy's recent trade performance...
- ...But Brexit still is preventing U.K. exporters from benefiting fully from the upswing in global trade.
- The return of the structural deficit in services trade will cause net trade to weigh on GDP growth in 2022.
- We have lowered our forecast for Q4 GDP, due to the impaired supply of fuel and industrial inputs.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to hike our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.4%, from 2.5%.
- We now expect the Committee to hike Bank Rate in Q2 2022, but we don't buy investors' hawkish view.