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Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.
Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.
All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.
Growth in employment in the three months to June undershot the consensus by the most in nearly two years.
The workforce, by contrast, is finally picking up, assisted by a recovery in immigration, which will be maintained.
Vacancy and payroll employee data indicate labour demand is stagnating; unemployment will rise further.
PAYE data, vacancy figures and business surveys all suggest employment growth slowed in June and July.
Labour supply, however, is picking up; the unemployment rate likely was marginally higher in Q2 than in Q1.
Wages likely continued to rise in June at a rate inconsistent with the inflation target, but probably didn't speed up.
The MPC currently expects the unemployment rate to remain well below 4% until Q3 2023...
...But timely indicators suggest demand for labour already is cooling, just as supply is starting to recover.
We expect the unemployment rate to rise above 4% before year-end, keeping a lid on wages and rate hikes.
House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
PMI data for July show that the recovery in GDP has nearly ground to a halt and inventory is piling up.
Employment growth slowed to a 15-month low, while the pace of input and output price rises eased materially.
On balance, the latest data imply the MPC won't act "forcefully"; market pricing for August is still too high.
The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.
So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.
The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.
We think employment grew at a steady 0.5% threemonth-on-three-month pace in May.
But expect even faster growth in the workforce to mean that the unemployment rate edged up again.
Surveys suggest wage growth had no more momentum in May than in prior months.
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