Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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employment

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

15 Feb 2021 Weakness in Capex and Exports will Temper the Consumer-led Rebound

Weakness in Capex and Exports will Temper the Consumer-led Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

25 Jan 2021 Public Borrowing Set to Hit £400B this Year, Despite Recent Trends

The public finances are in worse shape than the latest borrowing numbers indicate. For now, the ONS estimates that borrowing on the main "PSNB ex."

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

20 Jan 2021 December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

16 Dec 2020 Still At Least Six Months Until the Labour Market Turns the Corner

Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at a gradual pace in the autumn, despite uncertainty surrounding the future of government policies.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

4 Dec 2020 Will the Impediments to Negative Rates Lessen Next Year?

Markets no longer are confident that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below zero next year, from its current 0.10% rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Dec 2020 The Downturn in Retail Sector Employment is Only Beginning

The collapse this week of Arcadia and Debenhams--two high-street stalwarts who together employ 25K people--marks the start of a painful shake-out of employment in the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Nov 2020 14:10U.K.

9 Nov 2020 Expectations of an End to Furlough Likely Cost More Jobs in October

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that job losses continued to accumulate over the autumn, albeit at a measured pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

14 Oct 2020 The Labour Market is in the Eye of the Storm, More Job Losses Loom

On balance, yesterday's labour market statistics were better than we had expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

30 Sept 2020 All is Not Well in the Mortgage Market, Despite First Appearances

August's money and credit report creates a reassuring first impression, though the details are more troubling.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

29 Sept 2020 No-Deal Is a Risk Too Great for the Conservatives

Sterling yesterday clawed back some of the ground it lost earlier this month, when the government put forward the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

18 Sept 2020 QE to Remain the Main Monetary Policy Tool, at Least Until the Spring

The MPC surprised yesterday both with its bullish take on the economy's current health, and with the news that it will begin, in Q4, "structured engagement on the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

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