U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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employment
Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- S&P's survey points to another 0.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q4 and the likelihood of a faster decline in Q1.
- The employment index remained slightly above its long-run average, but it tends to lag the PMI.
- Output prices still are rising too fast for the MPC to tolerate, but leading indicators point to a slowing soon.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Employment essentially held steady in Q3, despite the fall in GDP; vacancies have remained at a high level too.
- But the rise in corporate borrowing costs looks set to be sharp enough to spark a wave of redundancies next year.
- Wage growth was far too strong for the MPC too tolerate in September, but timelier data point to a slowdown.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment was broadly flat in Q3, but the recent jump in firms' borrowing costs signals a big fall ahead.
- Long-term sickness looks set to rise further, but government policies likely will boost the workforce in 2023.
- We expect the unemployment rate to peak at about 5.5%, easily high enough to subdue wage growth.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for a small 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP
in August; that’s probably the last rise for this year.
- The single-month measure of employment fell in June and July, but surveys signal modest growth in August.
- Recent wage indicators have painted a mixed picture; expect year-over-year growth to rise only modestly.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Over three-quarters of firms’ bank loans are floating rate; interest payments will absorb 20% of profits soon.
- In total, firms’ financial assets are worth more than bank & bond debt, but they are mismatched between firms.
- The change in firms’ borrowing costs has been a good leading indicator of employment and capex in the past.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
- The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
- We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The improved near-term outlook for CPI inflation has left the MPC less anxious about second-round effects.
- The MPC is awaiting more details on fiscal policy; a 75bp hike in November can't be ruled out...
- ...But the proposed tax cuts will do little to boost GDP, and spending might be cut; we still expect a 50bp hike.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
- The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
- The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
- We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
- For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
- Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
- BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Futures prices indicate that the energy price cap will rise by a further 52% in January and 38% in April...
- ...Implying that energy will directly boost the headline rate of CPI inflation early next year by 11pp.
- Markets' bets on even faster rate hikes look misplaced; higher energy prices mean more labour market slack.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
