Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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6 Jan 2021 Spring Recovery Contingent on the Pace of Vaccine Rollout

The downturn in economic activity in Q1 is set to be even deeper than we first thought at the start of this week, following the new lockdown announced on Monday...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Nov 2020 14:10U.K.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Oct 2020 15:10U.K.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

29 Sept 2020 No-Deal Is a Risk Too Great for the Conservatives

Sterling yesterday clawed back some of the ground it lost earlier this month, when the government put forward the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Aug 2020 20:10U.K.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

30 July 2020 The Surge in the Money Supply Poses No Inflation Threat

June's money and credit data show that firms have accumulated a large cash pile since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak, despite sales falling through the floor.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

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