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The MPC's forecasts signal clearly that markets' medium-term expectations for Bank Rate are too high.
But concerns about persistence in domestic price setting, and looser fiscal policy, will spur further hikes.
We now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate to 2.00% in September and 2.25% in November, and then to pause.
The tax cut plans of Tory leadership contenders should be treated with a pinch of salt, given past experience.
Tax cuts won't lift GDP, if they are financed partially by spending reductions; the latter have a higher multiplier.
We doubt that even Ms. Truss would take away the BoE's independence.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
The potential medium-term gains might make the nearterm stasis caused by a new Tory leader contest worth it.
A more pragmatic approach to E.U. relations would lift exports and capex; supply-side reforms are overdue.
A snap election isn't likely, given the big majority a new leader would inherit and the poor economic backdrop.
The OBR’s March forecasts suggest tax cuts equal to 1.0% of GDP are permissible under the fiscal rules.
But since then, the Treasury’s borrowing costs have risen, reducing scope for tax cuts to 0.7% of GDP.
The Tories will be reluctant to ditch the rules, as this would inhibit their ability to criticise Labour’s plans.
The PM still won't be safe if he wins the confidence vote; rule changes or a recall petition could remove him.
A change of leader would raise the chances of a general election, which might weigh on business investment.
But the economic outlook will improve if a successor is constructive with the E.U. and on supply-side reforms.
Local election results imply the Tories are not on track to win in 2024, unless they turn the economy around.
Currently planned measures to support households in July and October are too small to move the dial.
Bringing forward April 2023's inflation-linked rise in benefits to October would be simple and well-targeted.
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