Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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1 Dec 2021 Near-Real-Time Data Already Show a Small Hit to Activity from Omicron

  • The recent measures implemented by the government will have limited direct impact on the economy...
  • ...But near-real-time data already show consumers are pulling back a bit in response to the new variant.
  • A "lockdown lite" set of restrictions could subtract 1.5% from Q1 GDP; expect a 6% hit with a full lockdown.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

18 Nov 2021 October's CPI Data Tip the Scales Towards a December Rate Hike

  • October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
  • The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
  • Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Oct 2021 September's CPI Data will be the Calm Before the Storm

  • CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
  • Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
  • ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Oct 2021 Recovery Sluggish Even Prior to the Withdrawal of Fiscal Support

  • August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
  • Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
  • We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

  • Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
  • The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
  • We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Sept 2021 July GDP to Undershoot the Consensus with a No-Change Print

  • GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
  • Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
  • A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2021 April GDP Shows Q2 Rebound on Track, But Progress will Slow in H2

We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 June 2021 GDP Likely Jumped to Within 4% of its Pre-Covid Level in April

We expect April’s GDP report, released on Friday, to show that the economy continued to recover at a rapid rate in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 June 2021 The PMI's Ebullience Contrasts Starkly with Other Surveys

Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 May 2021 Surveys Point Unambiguously to Higher Services Inflation Ahead

We were particularly struck last week by the absence of a jump in prices up on the reopening of non-essential shops and some services businesses in April.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2021 The U.K. Likely was the G7's Laggard for the Last Time in Q1

The U.K. economy almost certainly was the worst performer in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 May 2021 Health Spending Likely Drove Above- Consensus GDP Growth in March

We expect the March GDP report, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered renewed momentum even before restrictions on business activity had been lifted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence