Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

economy Investment

13 Sept 2021 Covid Put the Brakes on July GDP; Expect a Lingering Drag This Year

  • Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
  • The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
  • We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2021 Can the Recovery Advance Even if the Covid Situation Deteriorates?

  • Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
  • Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
  • Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 July 2021 Expect a Quicker than Usual Recovery in Capex This Time Around

Business investment slumped in Q1, as lockdowns weighed on firms' confidence.
While balance sheets look healthy in aggregate, firms have so far used the cash to pay off debts.
But looking ahead, the super-deduction policy should help to unlock some of that cash.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2021 Households' Wealth hasn't Soared, Despite Recent Cash Hoarding

The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2021 The U.K. Likely was the G7's Laggard for the Last Time in Q1

The U.K. economy almost certainly was the worst performer in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Mar 2021 The Days of Strong Workforce Growth are Long Gone

The U.K. economy turned in a respectable performance in the second half of the 2010s, partly due to solid growth in the workforce, which averaged 0.8% year-over-year, lifting GDP growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR’s new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak’s second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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