Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

economyValuation and Affordability Mortgage Lending and Sales

22 Oct 2021 House Prices will Flatline in H1 2022, if Markets are Right about Rates

  • This month's Stamp Duty change has left housing unscathed; we look for a 0.5% q/q rise in house prices in Q4.
  • House prices, however, will flatline in H1 2022; two-year fixed rate mortgage rates will jump by 60bp in Q4...
  • ...The squeeze on households' real income, as inflation rises and taxes increase, also will subdue the market.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Oct 2021 Could the Economy Withstand the Rate Hikes Markets Expect?

  • Markets expect interest rates to rise more in the next 15 months than in any other period since 2007.
  • Firms are well placed to cope, and the effective interest rate on all mortgage debt would rise only slowly...
  • ...But higher new mortgage rates would hit spending via lower house prices or higher mortgage payments.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Sept 2021 House Prices Should Recover Steadily in 2022 after Q4's Fall

  • Year-over-year growth in house prices slowed in July, following the tapering of government support.
  • Expect a further slowdown in Q4, when the SDLT threshold will return to £125K and real incomes will fall.
  • The outlook for 2022, however, is brighter; falling mortgage rates and tight supply will support prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Aug 2021 House Price Growth has Peaked, but Will Remain Positive Next Year

  • House price growth surged to 13.2% in June—the highest rate since late-2004—from 9.8% in May.
  • As government support fades and inflation rises, squeezing real incomes, price growth will slow...
  • ...But lower mortgage rates will prevent a marked slowdown; we have revised up our 2022 forecasts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 June 2021 Reopening Price Rises to Drive Above-Consensus May CPI Print

We think CPI inflation picked up to 1.9% in May, from 1.5% in April, exceeding the 1.8% consensus. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2021 Remortgaging Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels Anytime Soon

While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 June 2021 The PMI's Ebullience Contrasts Starkly with Other Surveys

Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 June 2021 Manufacturers Can't Ride the Restocking Wave Forever

The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 May 2021 Mortgage Lending to Remain High Through the Summer

The most eye-catching development in the March money and credit release was the surge in gross mortgage lending to a record high of £35.6B, up from £28.2B in February.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Apr 2021 Why is the RPI-CPI Gap So Small When House Prices are Surging?

One of the current puzzles in the U.K. data is that March's RPI inflation rate, 1.5%, was only 0.8 percentage points above the rate of CPI inflation, even though the housing market is glowing hot.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Apr 2021 The Housing Market will be Less Buoyant by Year-End

The mini-boom in the housing market is showing no signs of fizzling out yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Mar 2021 Households Likely Won't Splurge their Recently Accumulated Cash

The latest money and credit data show that the mortgage market cooled in February, with house purchase approvals falling to 87.7K in February, from 99.0K in January, and remortgaging remaining low.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, February 2021

In one line: The dip in mortgage approvals likely will be temporary

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence