Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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economyValuation and Affordability

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, June 2021

In one line: Sticking to the script; high inflation still seen as transitory.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April and May 2021

In one line: Employment is rising steadily, but probably won’t soar.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP and Trade, April 2021

In one line: Growth in line with expectations; May likely saw further progress.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March and April 2021

In one line: Employment growth will accelerate in Q2, but sufficient slack will remain to contain wages.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, March / Q1 2021

In one line: The laggard in the G7 for the last time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey and ONS BIC Survey, April 2021

In one line: The recovery is gathering steam, but chances of ingrained high inflation remain low.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

*April 2021 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

A Strong Initial Recovery Will Lose Momentum in 2022....Due To Fiscal Tightening, Brexit And Slow Workforce Growth

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Mar 2021 Households Likely Won't Splurge their Recently Accumulated Cash

The latest money and credit data show that the mortgage market cooled in February, with house purchase approvals falling to 87.7K in February, from 99.0K in January, and remortgaging remaining low.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January and February 2021

In one line: Unemployment probably won’t rise until the furlough scheme ends. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Mar 2021 Has the Furlough Scheme Quashed Remortgaging Activity

The mini-boom in the housing market began to deflate at the start of this year, as would-be buyers had little chance of completing a transaction before the stamp duty threshold returns to £125K, from £500K, at the end of this month. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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