Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

depreciation

19 Aug 2021 CPI Base Effects Distract from July's Slowing in Core Price Rises

  • The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
  • CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
  • ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 June 2021 Above-Target Inflation will Last no Longer than a Year

The jump in CPI inflation to 2.1% in May, from 1.5% in April, marks the start of a period of above target inflation driven by services businesses hiking prices as they reopen, as well as higher energy prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 June 2021 Reopening Price Rises to Drive Above-Consensus May CPI Print

We think CPI inflation picked up to 1.9% in May, from 1.5% in April, exceeding the 1.8% consensus. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Apr 2021 Why is the RPI-CPI Gap So Small When House Prices are Surging?

One of the current puzzles in the U.K. data is that March's RPI inflation rate, 1.5%, was only 0.8 percentage points above the rate of CPI inflation, even though the housing market is glowing hot.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Apr 2021 Sterling at Risk of Falling Further Over the Remainder of this Year

Sterling started 2021 on the front foot, rising to $1.41 in mid-February, from $1.37 at the end of last year.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Mar 2021 Big Trade Deficits Likely will Return Later this Year

The trade balance has been very volatile over the last two years, primarily due to the impact of Covid-19 on supply chains and travel, as well as the disruption caused by Brexit.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Mar 2021 RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

Markets' inflation expectations have continued to rise in recent days.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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