Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed.
Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than pre-Covid.
Businesses increased their net external finance for the first time since February; a positive sign for capex.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 July 2021 Strong Pushback from the MPC's Doves Suggests QE will Roll on

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...
...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.
Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored;Team Transitory probably is right.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Apr 2021 The MPC Likely will Wait Another Month to Taper its Gilt Purchases

The key question for investors next week is whether the MPC will immediately taper its purchases of government bonds.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Apr 2021 Will Public Borrowing Continue to Undershoot the OBR's Forecast?

The public finances picked up the strain from Covid-19 last year, but have come through the crisis in better shape than the OBR feared, even as recently as at last month's Budget.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Mar 2021 Households Likely Won't Splurge their Recently Accumulated Cash

The latest money and credit data show that the mortgage market cooled in February, with house purchase approvals falling to 87.7K in February, from 99.0K in January, and remortgaging remaining low.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Mar 2021 RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

Markets' inflation expectations have continued to rise in recent days.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR’s new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak’s second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

The Budget comes at a sensitive time for the gilt market, following the recent jump in yields.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

he OBR likely will maintain its optimistic assessment of the long-term scarring to the economy from the recent recession in its forecasts that accompany the Budget on Wednesday. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor looks set to extend existing support measures for the economy into the summer at the Budget on March 3, but he will postpone big decisions regarding new fiscal rules and the tax rises needed to meet them until the autumn.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Feb 2021 The Down-Weighting of Services will Hold Back Core Inflation

January’s consumer prices report was significant, not so much for the rise in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.7%, from 0.6% in December, but for the big changes to the weights of the components.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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