Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR's new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Mar 2021 03:13U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak's second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

2 Mar 2021 Has the Furlough Scheme Quashed Remortgaging Activity

2 Mar 2021 Has the Furlough Scheme Quashed Remortgaging Activity

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

22 Feb 2021 How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

17 Feb 2021 Official Data to Confirm Retailers had a Bad Start to 2021

Official Data to Confirm Retailers had a Bad Start to 2021

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, December 2020

U.K. Money & Credit, December 2020

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Feb 2021 06:04U.K.

8 Jan 2021 The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, November 2020

In one line: The mortgage market is heading for a hard landing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Jan 2021 05:57U.K.

5 Jan 2021 Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:34U.K.

1 Dec 2020 Households are Using Surplus Cash to Pay Off Unsecured Debt

A key determinant of the strength of the economic recovery next year will be households' willingness to spend the savings they have accumulated this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, October 2020

In one line: Savings are being used to pay off unsecured debts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Nov 2020 05:00U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

30 Sept 2020 All is Not Well in the Mortgage Market, Despite First Appearances

August's money and credit report creates a reassuring first impression, though the details are more troubling.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, August 2020

In one line: Mortgage approvals won't be sustained at August's level for long.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Sep 2020 12:08U.K.

28 Sept 2020 Recent Public Borrowing Data Flatter to Deceive

Recent estimates of public borrowing have undershot the OBR's expectations, superficially suggesting the Chancellor has greater-than- expected capacity to borrow even more in...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)27th Sep 2020 20:10U.K.

21 Aug 2020 Sterling Likely to Give Back Recent Gains as the Brexit Deadline Looms

Sterling has recovered virtually all of the ground it lost against the U.S. dollar in the spring, rising to $1.31 in recent days, from just $1.26 a month ago and a low of $1.15 in...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Aug 2020 20:10U.K.

7 Aug 2020 More Monetary Stimulus Likely in Q4, Despite the MPC's Optimism

The MPC struck a less dovish tone than markets had anticipated yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

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