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Year-over-year growth in the official measure of house prices fell to 9.8% in March, from 11.3% in February.
Surging mortgage rates and falling real disposable incomes will cause house price growth to slow further.
We expect house prices to level off in H2, leaving the year-over-year rate at around 5% at the end of 2022.
The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.
Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.
Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.
Households must save less—or borrow more—to the tune of £9B in Q2, in order for real spending not to fall.
That is possible, given that "excess savings" are £186B and consumer credit is £25B below its peak.
But people didn't draw on savings in March and still are reluctant to borrow, so GDP looks set to dip in Q2.
The composite PMI points to solid quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.7% in Q2, despite falling in April.
The PMI, however, likely is too upbeat; it excludes government expenditure and retail sales, which are falling.
It might also be too strong when turnover is being lifted by price rises; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.
Employment started to rise again in the three months to February, having fallen in December and January.
The workforce should start to recover this year, reflecting a decline in inactivity and a rise in immigration.
Alongside slower labour demand growth this should mean wages continue to rise more slowly than prices.
GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February, despite a rebound in private sector activity, due to falling Covid spending.
Healthcare output will fall further, while the momentum in the private sector will slow as real incomes decline.
We look for a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP in Q2; the extra public holiday will add to these headwinds.
Output in the consumer services sector recovered strongly in February, assisted by fading Covid fears.
...But output in the health sector likely fell considerably, due to sharp falls in Covid testing and vaccinations.
Manufacturing output was hit by a slump in car production, while building work was disrupted by storms.
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