Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- GDP surpassed its pre-Covid level in November, albeit with support from some unsustainable sources.
- Omicron has temporarily set the economy back, but GDP should return to November's level by March.
- Thereafter, however, GDP growth likely will be slow, due to the squeeze on households' disposable incomes.
- Omicron cases have peaked and hospital admissions will too soon, at only half their January 2021 peak.
- We now expect Plan B rules to expire on January 26, rather than be extended for another month...
- ...So we are revising up our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from zero.
- We think that GDP increased by about 0.6% month-to-month in November, above the 0.4% consensus.
- Easing supply-chain blockages seem to have facilitat- ed pick-ups in manufacturing and construction output.
- Growth in services output was supported by increas- es in retail sales, transport usage and vaccinations.
- The return of monthly saving to pre-Covid levels is a sign of the real income squeeze, not surging spending.
- The recent surge in house prices, however, is enabling refinancing homeowners to access lower interest rates.
- Firms continued to repay external borrowing in November, but we remain upbeat on the capex outlook.
- Consumer caution in response to Omicron points to a near-1% fall in GDP between November and January.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to revise up our forecast for this year's peak rate of CPI inflation to 6.0%.
- The MPC, however, likely will wait until March to hike rates again, given the large hit to activity from Omicron
- Omicron cases have leapt, but little still is known about the hospitalisation rate; new curbs aren't inevitable.
- Even with no new restrictions and low Omicron severity, GDP likely will be 1% lower in January than in November.
- Expect a 2% hit to GDP from a return to "Step Two" rules, and a 6% hit if a full lockdown is imposed.
- October's mere 0.1% m/m increase in GDP shows the recovery had little momentum before Omicron.
- GDP was near its pre-Covid level only due to surging health activities; private sector GDP was 2.4% adrift.
- A pullback in consumer services spending will depress GDP over the winter; no rate hike before March.
- Omicron fears already have led people to travel and visit restaurants, shops and cinemas less often.
- Booster jabs are containing hospital admissions, but people still have good reasons to avoid being infected.
- While boosters and school holidays will weigh on cases, Omicron and Christmas festivities will keep R>1.
- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
The fast rollout of boosters has reduced U.K. hospital admissions, whereas they are surging across Europe.
Economic contagion for the U.K. in the event of fresh restrictions in the rest of Europe should be modest.
Manufacturing output would be unaffected, while the weaker euro will help to lower U.K. CPI inflation in 2022.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
- Payroll employee numbers likely increased again in October, but not quite as strongly as in Q3.
- The data, however, will not gauge underemployment; October's LFS data, released in December, remain key.
- The recent drop in Covid-19 cases has largely been driven by school holidays; expect a renewed rise soon.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- Budget announcements, including the jump in National Living Wage, will support earnings growth next year...
- ...but higher taxes and inflation suggest real take home pay will fall by 1.5%, the most since 2011.
- This is one key reason we expect the MPC will hike Bank Rate by less than markets currently expect.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
- The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
- Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations; workers don't expect wages to keep pace.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- Furlough scheme usage fell only marginally in August; 4.6% of staff still were furloughed by month-end.
- Furlough rates remain high at small businesses, who lack the financial muscle to bring all staff back.
- We expect only a modest rise in the unemployment rate to 5% in Q4, but a big jump in underemployment.
- The recent fall in hospital admissions suggests that the pandemic was on the retreat in September...
- ...But warmer-than-usual weather and fuel shortages have helped to reduce transmission temporarily.
- The combination of fading vaccine effectiveness and limited booster jab plans suggests Q4 will be worse.