Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

corporations

5 Jan 2022 Lower Saving Reflects Inflation Pressure, not Reviving Confidence

  • The return of monthly saving to pre-Covid levels is a sign of the real income squeeze, not surging spending.
  • The recent surge in house prices, however, is enabling refinancing homeowners to access lower interest rates.
  • Firms continued to repay external borrowing in November, but we remain upbeat on the capex outlook.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

17 Dec 2021 The MPC will Give the Economy Breathing Space Before Hiking Again

Markets now expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate to 0.50% in February, following today's surprise hike.

Most members, however, thought the decision was "finely balanced" and see a "modest" tightening ahead.

Omicron won't just have short-term effects if the MPC hikes again and pushes firms over the edge.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

30 Nov 2021 Does October's Low Saving Signal Households' Mindset has Changed?

  • Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
  • ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
  • Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Nov 2021 Households won't Abandon their Cautious Mindset Anytime Soon

  • Households continued in September to save more and borrow less than they did before Covid.
  • The recovery in spending will continue only if households save less in response to falling real incomes...
  • Households did this in 2016, but are less confident now, despite having a larger precautionary buffer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence