Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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construction output

9 Feb 2021 Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

8 Feb 2021 GDP Likely Recovered in December, but Remained in the Doldrums

DP Likely Recovered in December, but Remained in the Doldrums

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Construction Survey, January 2021

U.K. Markit/CIPS Construction Survey, January 2021

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Feb 2021 11:01U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

13 Jan 2021 November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

8 Jan 2021 The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

The Medium-Term Outlook for Residential Investment is Bright

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Construction Survey, December 2020

U.K. Markit/CIPS Construction Survey, December

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2021 12:07U.K.

4 Jan 2021 January GDP Will Sink Below November's Lockdown Level

The emergence of a new strain of Covid-19— B117—which is about 70% more infectious than those before it, has lowered the level of economic activity that is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:30U.K.

11 Dec 2020 GDP won't Return to October's Level until March

October's GDP figures conformed to our expectation that the recovery hit a wall as the second wave of Covid-19 developed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

7 Dec 2020 GDP Likely Held Steady in October, as the Second Wave Advanced

We expect October's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that month-to-month growth slowed to about zero, from 1.1% in September, as consumers retreated to their homes as...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Dec 2020 19:10U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, November 2020

In one line: The recovery is still progressing steadily, but pre-Covid levels of activity aren't likely next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Dec 2020 11:16U.K.

2 Dec 2020 The Downturn in Retail Sector Employment is Only Beginning

The collapse this week of Arcadia and Debenhams--two high-street stalwarts who together employ 25K people--marks the start of a painful shake-out of employment in the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

17 Nov 2020 Covid-19 Case Data Imply Little Scope for Reopening in December

The latest Covid-19 data suggest the government will not simply be able to return to October's light-touch restrictions, when the second "lockdown" is due to end,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

10 Nov 2020 GDP Likely Grew Slowly in September, but the Consensus is too Downbeat

September's GDP report, released on Thursday, looks set to show the economic recovery ended Q3 with little momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Nov 2020 17:20U.K.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, October 2020

In one line: The recovery is slowing and soon will hit a ceiling.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Nov 2020 10:44U.K.

4 Nov 2020 Manufacturing will be a Bright Spot Through the Bleak Winter

Equity markets are correctly concluding that the outlook for U.K.-listed manufacturers is brighter than for most other firms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

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