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We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.
We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.
We think that CPI inflation leapt to 9.4% in June, from 9.1% in May, exceeding the MPC’s 9.1% forecast.
But the upside surprise will be due to a massive rise in motor fuel prices, and another increase in food inflation.
Core inflation likely fell to 5.8%, from 5.9% in May; June 2021’s surge in goods prices likely wasn’t repeated.
The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.
The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.
A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.
The composite PMI held steady at 53.1 in June, but it has been misleadingly upbeat in recent months.
It excludes the retail and public sectors, both of which will drag on quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2.
We still forecast a 0.7% q/q drop in Q2 GDP, and only a 25bp increase in Bank Rate in August.
Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.
Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.
Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.
April's fall in GDP was driven by Covid spending, but flat private sector GDP caused the downside surprise.
Consumer services firms likely increasingly struggled during Q2, as households' real incomes fell further.
June's extra bank holiday also will dampen Q2 GDP; the MPC has to lower its forecast for 0.1% q/q growth.
We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.
While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.
The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.
Higher energy prices and tax rises pushed up the headline rate of CPI inflation to a 40-year high in April.
But there were encouraging signs that retailers are starting to absorb some of the surge in producer prices.
Inflation will ease over the summer as base effects kick in and the real income squeeze inhibits services price rises.
The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.
Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.
Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.
The estimate of public borrowing in 2021/22 almost certainly will be revised down over the coming months.
But we think public borrowing is on course to overshoot the OBR's forecast in 2022/23 and beyond.
The OBR's assumption that productivity will grow at double the pace seen in the 2010s is implausible.
GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February, despite a rebound in private sector activity, due to falling Covid spending.
Healthcare output will fall further, while the momentum in the private sector will slow as real incomes decline.
We look for a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP in Q2; the extra public holiday will add to these headwinds.
We think CPI inflation rose by 0.5pp to 6.7% in March, well above the "around 6%" range expected by the MPC.
Motor fuel prices jumped, while PPI data point to further increases in food and core goods CPI inflation.
Services businesses also are passing on higher costs; rail fares and rents rose more than usual too.
Output in the consumer services sector recovered strongly in February, assisted by fading Covid fears.
...But output in the health sector likely fell considerably, due to sharp falls in Covid testing and vaccinations.
Manufacturing output was hit by a slump in car production, while building work was disrupted by storms.
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