U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
construction
- The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
- ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
- Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
- We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
- Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Low unemployment means few homeowners will be forced to sell up, and construction already is declining.
- Landlords, however, likely will struggle to raise rents in line with the jump in their mortgage payments.
- We expect the stock of homes on the market, therefore, to rise over the next year, weighing on house prices.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
- We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
- But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
