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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.
The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.
A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.
April's fall in GDP was driven by Covid spending, but flat private sector GDP caused the downside surprise.
Consumer services firms likely increasingly struggled during Q2, as households' real incomes fell further.
June's extra bank holiday also will dampen Q2 GDP; the MPC has to lower its forecast for 0.1% q/q growth.
We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.
While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.
The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.
The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.
Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.
Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.
The estimate of public borrowing in 2021/22 almost certainly will be revised down over the coming months.
But we think public borrowing is on course to overshoot the OBR's forecast in 2022/23 and beyond.
The OBR's assumption that productivity will grow at double the pace seen in the 2010s is implausible.
GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February, despite a rebound in private sector activity, due to falling Covid spending.
Healthcare output will fall further, while the momentum in the private sector will slow as real incomes decline.
We look for a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP in Q2; the extra public holiday will add to these headwinds.
Output in the consumer services sector recovered strongly in February, assisted by fading Covid fears.
...But output in the health sector likely fell considerably, due to sharp falls in Covid testing and vaccinations.
Manufacturing output was hit by a slump in car production, while building work was disrupted by storms.
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