Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

construction

9 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Construction Output will Fall Twice as Sharply as GDP Next Year

  • The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
  • ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
  • Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

13 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Q3 GDP Set to be Unchanged from Q2, Undershooting the MPC's forecast

  • June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
  • We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
  • Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Sept 2022 UK Monitor The Inventory of Unsold Properties will Rise Over the Next Year

  • Low unemployment means few homeowners will be forced to sell up, and construction already is declining.
  • Landlords, however, likely will struggle to raise rents in line with the jump in their mortgage payments.
  • We expect the stock of homes on the market, therefore, to rise over the next year, weighing on house prices.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

1 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Capex will Continue to Recover, Despite the Risk of Recession

  • Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
  • We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
  • But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

8 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Jubilee-Linked Drop in June GDP to Obscure the Economy's Pulse

We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.

GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.

Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will a Household Saving Drawdown Keep a Winter Recession at Bay?

Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.

On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.

Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2022 Most of Q1's Increase in GDP Likely was Reversed in Q2

The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.

The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.

A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2022 GDP Set to Contract by about 0.7% Q/Q in Q2, after April's Weak Print

April's fall in GDP was driven by Covid spending, but flat private sector GDP caused the downside surprise.

Consumer services firms likely increasingly struggled during Q2, as households' real incomes fell further.

June's extra bank holiday also will dampen Q2 GDP; the MPC has to lower its forecast for 0.1% q/q growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 June 2022 April GDP Data Will Confirm the Recovery has Stalled

We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.

While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.

The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, May 2022

  • In one line: The recovery is slowing, but the chances of a renewed downturn in output are slim. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Output growth slowing, as sharp price rises take a toll on demand. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 May 2022 GDP Likely was Unchanged in March, Preluding a Contraction in Q2

The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.

Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.

Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence