Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

commodity prices

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: House prices are continuing to fall.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2023

  • In one line: Core price rises have slowed sharply, supporting an MPC pause next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, December 2022

  • In one line: More evidence that core price rises are slowing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Official House Price Data are Defying Gravity, but not for Much Longer

  • The official house price data rose by 0.3% month-to-month in October, despite the jump in mortgage rates.
  • But mortgage rates will stay high in 2023, and real disposable incomes will fall; house prices will drop...
  • ...We expect a peak-to-trough fall of 8%, though we are more optimistic on the longer-term outlook.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

15 Dec 2022 UK Monitor November's Fall in CPI Inflation Marks the Start of a Sharp Decline

  • November's month-to-month rise in the core CPI was the smallest, adjusted for seasonality, for 11 months.
  • This isn't a fluke; recent falls in shipping costs and commodity prices point to a sharp fall in goods inflation.
  • Services inflation is a few months from peaking, but it will fall quickly in 2023 too, as wage growth slows.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November 2022

  • In one line: At last! A clear slowing in the rate of core price rises. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2022

  • In one line: House prices fall for the second month in a row. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

29 Nov 2022 UK Monitor House Prices have Scope to Rebound in the mid-2020s

Incoming data are consistent with our forecast for a sharp fall in house purchases and an 8% drop in prices.

The MPC, however, won’t keep Bank Rate at 4% indefinitely; house prices should rebound in the mid-2020s.

Mortgage payments’ share of incomes will not return to 2010s levels; hefty rent rises have raised the floor.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Stabilisation of Retail Sales in Q4 will Prove to be a False Dawn

  • Retail sales might hold steady in Q4, given the boost to disposable incomes from reversing the NI hike...
  • ...But they likely will fall again in 2023, as real incomes are hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support.
  • A risk premium no longer is priced-in to gilts and sterling, but new strains might emerge if energy prices surge.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October 2022

  • In one line:  Still no sign of a slowing in the pace of core price rises yet. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Brace for an Above-Consensus CPI Inflation Print for October

  • We look for an above-consensus jump in CPI inflation to 10.9% in October, from 10.2% in September.
  • Food prices continued to rise quickly and energy prices soared; core CPI inflation likely remained high too.
  • The BRC’s non-food shop prices index leapt; services inflation likely was supported by education and rents.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Downturn in House Prices is Only Just Getting Started

  • Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
  • Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
  • Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Oct 2022 U.K. Monitor No Shortage of Scary Charts Foretelling a Haunting 2023

  • Rising mortgage rates, energy prices and unemploy- ment will all drain the life from the economy next year.
  • Real government spending will be strangled in each of the next three years, in order to get the debt ratio falling.
  • A further rise in long-term sickness will be another un- welcome shock; no escaping a prolonged recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September 2022

  • In one line:  No let up in the rate of core price rises yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September 2022

  • In one line: The start of a prolonged fall in house prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

30 Sept 2022 UK Monitor House Prices will Fall, But a Double- Digit Percentage Drop Looks a Stretch

  • The supply of existing homes on the market needs to rise sharply to depress house prices substantially...
  • ...But the link between unemployment and forced sales has loosened, as fewer low-to-mid earners own homes.
  • We look for a 5% drop in house prices over the next 12 months, but a severe decline in housing transactions.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence