U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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clothing
- January's 5.5% rate of CPI inflation only just exceeded the MPC's 5.4% forecast; the surprise was all in goods.
- Services inflation is only slightly above its long-run average; the MPC needn't panic.
- The headline rate likely will peak at 7.7% in April, but then fall swiftly, potentially undershooting the target in 2023.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Retail sales were hit in December by a double whammy of earlier-than-usual gift buying and Omicron.
- Sales, however, will be no higher in Q1 and Q2 than in Q4, given the pressure on households' real incomes.
- Households have huge excess savings, but low confidence suggests they won't draw on them much soon.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We are bringing forward our forecast for the next two increases in Bank Rate, following December's CPI data.
- While food, energy and goods prices are mainly to blame for high inflation, services inflation has risen too.
- CPI inflation, however, will fall sharply in H2 and should be below target in 2023, curtailing the hiking cycle.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation probably was unchanged at 5.1% in December, giving the MPC some breathing space.
- Pick-ups in food and used car price inflation likely were offset by falls in the tobacco and clothing components.
- The seasonal surge in plane ticket prices will boost the CPI less than usual, because its weight has shrunk.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
November's 5.1% CPI inflation rate was 0.6pp above the forecast made by the MPC only last month...
...But high inflation is due to surging energy and goods prices; underlying services inflation remains subdued.
We expect the headline rate to peak at 6.0% in April, but then to fall sharply, slipping below-target in 2023.
Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.
- CPI inflation likely rose to 4.8% in November—0.3pp above the MPC's forecast—from 4.2% in October.
- Used car prices still are rising rapidly, while supermar- kets are passing on higher food prices to shoppers.
- Tobacco prices were lifted by a duty hike, while cloth- ing CPI inflation likely was boosted by a base effect.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
- Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
- Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
- Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
- ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
