Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

clothing

17 Feb 2022 Inflation Data Bolster the Case for Rate Hikes, but not 50bp in One Go

  • January's 5.5% rate of CPI inflation only just exceeded the MPC's 5.4% forecast; the surprise was all in goods.
  • Services inflation is only slightly above its long-run average; the MPC needn't panic.
  • The headline rate likely will peak at 7.7% in April, but then fall swiftly, potentially undershooting the target in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Jan 2022 December's Drop in Retail Sales is a Blip, but the Trend is Uninspiring

  •  Retail sales were hit in December by a double whammy of earlier-than-usual gift buying and Omicron.
  • Sales, however, will be no higher in Q1 and Q2 than in Q4, given the pressure on households' real incomes.
  • Households have huge excess savings, but low confidence suggests they won't draw on them much soon.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Jan 2022 The MPC will React Immediately to December's Blowout CPI Figure

  • We are bringing forward our forecast for the next two increases in Bank Rate, following December's CPI data.
  • While food, energy and goods prices are mainly to blame for high inflation, services inflation has risen too.
  • CPI inflation, however, will fall sharply in H2 and should be below target in 2023, curtailing the hiking cycle.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Jan 2022 CPI inflation Likely was Stable in December, to the MPC's Relief

  • CPI inflation probably was unchanged at 5.1% in December, giving the MPC some breathing space.
  • Pick-ups in food and used car price inflation likely were offset by falls in the tobacco and clothing components.
  • The seasonal surge in plane ticket prices will boost the CPI less than usual, because its weight has shrunk.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Dec 2021 Subdued Services Inflation Gives the MPC Time to Wait for Omicron

November's 5.1% CPI inflation rate was 0.6pp above the forecast made by the MPC only last month...

...But high inflation is due to surging energy and goods prices; underlying services inflation remains subdued.

We expect the headline rate to peak at 6.0% in April, but then to fall sharply, slipping below-target in 2023.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

9 Dec 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Exceeded the MPC's Forecast, Again, in November

  • CPI inflation likely rose to 4.8% in November—0.3pp above the MPC's forecast—from 4.2% in October.
  • Used car prices still are rising rapidly, while supermar- kets are passing on higher food prices to shoppers.
  • Tobacco prices were lifted by a duty hike, while cloth- ing CPI inflation likely was boosted by a base effect.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 Nov 2021 Forecast Review: MPC Caught Between Higher Inflation and Omicron

  • Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
  • The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
  • The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Nov 2021 Q4 Retail Sales won't be Stellar, Despite October's Good Start

  • October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
  • Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
  • A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Nov 2021 October's CPI Inflation Print Likely Will Exceeded the Consensus

  • Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
  • Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
  • Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Oct 2021 September's CPI Data will be the Calm Before the Storm

  • CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
  • Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
  • ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence