U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
chancellor
- Rising debt interest payments explain why January's surplus was smaller than the OBR forecast.
- We expect the OBR to revise up its forecast for public borrowing in 2022/23 to about £97B, from £83B.
- Mr. Sunak still will meet his fiscal rules, but will preserve his remaining headroom until nearer the next election.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Public borrowing in 2021/22 looks set to come in at about £170B, £13B below the OBR's Budget forecast.
- The hit from higher interest payments will exceed the windfall from higher-than-forecast GDP in 2022/23...
- ...But Mr. Sunak built some wriggle room into his plans; he can intervene on energy prices and meet his targets.
Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.
- The default tariff energy price cap looks set to rise by 47% in April, pushing up CPI inflation to 6.2%.
- The rise will be larger, if suppliers are immediately compensated for acquiring failed competitors' customers.
- Removing VAT would limit the inflation peak to 6.0%; a supplier loan scheme could have a bigger impact.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely rose to 4.8% in November—0.3pp above the MPC's forecast—from 4.2% in October.
- Used car prices still are rising rapidly, while supermar- kets are passing on higher food prices to shoppers.
- Tobacco prices were lifted by a duty hike, while cloth- ing CPI inflation likely was boosted by a base effect.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
