Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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3 Apr 2020 Unemployment Is Soaring, How Far Will it Rise?

The limited data available on the state of the labour market, since the government forced businesses to close two weeks ago, paint a disconcerting picture.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Apr 2020 14:10U.K.

30 Mar 2020 Should Holders of Gilts Fear the Impending Surge in Issuance?

The economic downturn and the Chancellor's unprecedented fiscal measures mean that public borrowing likely will be about four times higher, in the forthcoming fiscal year,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Mar 2020 20:10U.K.

26 Mar 2020 CPI Inflation to Slide Well Below 1% in the Summer

New BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be reaching for his letter-writing pen soon, to explain to the Chancellor why CPI inflation is more than one percentage point below the 2%...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Mar 2020 14:10U.K.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery?

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

11 Mar 2020 Time for the Government to Reveal its Virus Response

We expect the Budget today to underwhelm investors who are eager to see a quick and powerful government response to the coronavirus outbreak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Mar 2020 14:10U.K.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Mar 2020 14:10U.K.

6 Mar 2020 The Near-Term Fiscal Boost from the Budget Will Be Modest

Chancellor Sunak faces a tough first gig on Wednesday, when he delivers the long-awaited Budget.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Mar 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Mar 2020 Will the BoE be Swept Along in the Global Rush to Ease?

Investors moved rapidly last week to price-in renewed easing by central banks around the world, in response to the rapid growth in coronavirus cases outside China and the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Mar 2020 19:10U.K.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

14 Feb 2020 Javid's Resignation Opens the Door to Bolder Fiscal Stimulus

Chancellor Javid's resignation, only eight months after assuming the role, is the clearest sign yet that the Johnson-led government wants fiscal policy to play a bigger part...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

12 Feb 2020 GDP Data Highlight Scope for a Consumer-led Rebound in Q1

The latest GDP data confirm that the economy ended last year on a very weak note.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

5 Feb 2020 New Fiscal Forecasts Will Clip the Chancellor's Wings

The Budget on March 11 will be the first time that the new government's ambition and bluster collide with reality.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Jan 2020 The Chancellor's GDP Growth Target is Practically Unachievable

Chancellor Javid told the Financial Times earlier this month that he wants to lift the rate of GDP growth to between 2.7% and 2.8%, the average rate in the 50 years following the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom?

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Jan 2020 Structural Strengths Suggest Recession Risks Remain Low

The 2010s were the first decade since reliable records begin--in the 1700s--in which a recession was completely avoided

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Dec 2019 08:48U.K.

5 Dec 2019 Would the Conservatives Really Run a Tight Fiscal Ship?

Over the summer, both Chancellor Javid and PM Johnson appeared to be repositioning the Conservatives, claiming that the era of austerity was over and that higher levels of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

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