Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

capex

30 Nov 2021 Does October's Low Saving Signal Households' Mindset has Changed?

  • Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
  • ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
  • Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Nov 2021 Business Investment Held Back by Supply Side Constraints

  • Capex failed to pick up at all in Q3, as firms struggled to get their hands on transport equipment.
  • Firms, however, appear keen to invest and have the financial resources, so a rebound remains likely.
  • We expect capex to rise by about 10% in 2022 and 4% in 2023, eventually returning to 2019's level.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Nov 2021 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Leaves the U.K. as the G7's Straggler Again

  • U.K. GDP was 2.1% below its Q4 2019 level in Q3, exceeding the shortfalls seen in other G7 counties.
  • Households have continued to spend more cautiously than those abroad; high virus levels are partly to blame.
  • Brexit also has contributed to the continued underper- formance; exports were 17% below their 2019 average.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Nov 2021 Households won't Abandon their Cautious Mindset Anytime Soon

  • Households continued in September to save more and borrow less than they did before Covid.
  • The recovery in spending will continue only if households save less in response to falling real incomes...
  • Households did this in 2016, but are less confident now, despite having a larger precautionary buffer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Sept 2021 Consumers are Missing in Action, will they Finally Stop Saving in Q4

  • Households continued to add to their stock of savings at a faster rate in August than before Covid.
  • Unsecured lending rose only modestly too; lower confi- dence in September points to still-subdued spending.
  • Surging energy prices mean we are lifting our 2022 CPI inflation forecast to 3.4%, from 3.2% two weeks ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Sept 2021 The OBR Likely Won't Gift Mr. Sunak Much Rosier Economic Forecasts

  • Public borrowing in August was only slightly below the OBR's forecast; interest payments are picking up.
  • We think the OBR will revise its long-term "scarring" estimate only to 2.5%, from 3.0% previously...
  • ...The workforce has continued to contract this year, confounding the OBR's hopes of a rebound.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2021 The MPC Won't Hike Bank Rate Just After a Big Rise in NICs

  • Markets still expect the MPC to hike rates in Q2 2022, despite surprise plans to lift national insurance in April.
  • The tax hike will defer a full recovery in households' spending to the second half of next year.
  • The plans imply the Treasury does not expect the OBR to turn upbeat on the medium-term economic outlook.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2021 Households' Wealth hasn't Soared, Despite Recent Cash Hoarding

The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 June 2021 April Money Data Signal a Steady, not Spectacular, Recovery in GDP

April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2021 The U.K. Likely was the G7's Laggard for the Last Time in Q1

The U.K. economy almost certainly was the worst performer in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence