U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
business surveys
- The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
- Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
- Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We think GDP dropped by 0.5% month-to-month in September; business surveys were very weak...
- ...And the extra public holiday for the Queen’s funeral likely was more damaging than the Jubilee holiday.
- A peak-to-trough fall in GDP of about 2.3% likely lies ahead, similar in scale to the early 1990s recession.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for a small 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP
in August; that’s probably the last rise for this year.
- The single-month measure of employment fell in June and July, but surveys signal modest growth in August.
- Recent wage indicators have painted a mixed picture; expect year-over-year growth to rise only modestly.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
- The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
- We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
- We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
- Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
- Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
- BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
- The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
- Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
- We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
- But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
