Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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brexit

PM Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2021

PM Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2021

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Mar 2021 05:45U.K.

26 Feb 2021 Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Feb 2021 The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

The U.K. will Recover Less Quickly than the U.S., Holding Sterling Back

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

8 Feb 2021 GDP Likely Recovered in December, but Remained in the Doldrums

DP Likely Recovered in December, but Remained in the Doldrums

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

18 Jan 2021 November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

November GDP Shows More Firms are Becoming Lockdown-Immune

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

13 Jan 2021 November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Jan 2021 How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

7 Jan 2021 Will the Post-Brexit Deal Recovery in U.K. Equity Prices Gather Steam?

The last-minute trade deal signed with the E.U. has put a spring in the s tep of U.K. equities.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

18 Dec 2020 MPC Signals it Won't Hesitate to Ease Further in the Event of No-Deal

The MPC surprised nobody in voting unanimously this week to keep Bank Rate at 0.10% and to maintain its targets for the stock of government and corporate bond purchases at £875B...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Dec 2020 13:00U.K.

17 Dec 2020 Risks of a 2021 Inflation Overshoot are Low, Absent No-Deal

The decline in CPI inflation to 0.3% in November, from 0.7% in October, likely doesn't represent a shift in the underlying trend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

15 Dec 2020 MPC Unlikely to Declare a New Lower Bound for Rates This Week

Investors almost certainly are right to price-in only a minuscule chance that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below 0.10% on Thursday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

14 Dec 2020 How Far Would Sterling Fall in the Event of No-deal?

Attempting to forecast the likely level of sterling in the event of a no-deal Brexit is more of an art than a science, as it is impossible to know the extent to which this act of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Dec 2020 19:10U.K.

11 Dec 2020 GDP won't Return to October's Level until March

October's GDP figures conformed to our expectation that the recovery hit a wall as the second wave of Covid-19 developed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

8 Dec 2020 A Brexit Trade Deal Remains the Path of Least Resistance for the PM

Markets have become more nervous about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, following the absence of a breakthrough in negotiations over the weekend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

3 Dec 2020 Don't Expect a Big Rebound in U.K Equities, Even With a Trade Deal

The torrid performance of U.K. equities partially reversed in November with a once-in-a-generation jump in prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Dec 2020 The Downturn in Retail Sector Employment is Only Beginning

The collapse this week of Arcadia and Debenhams--two high-street stalwarts who together employ 25K people--marks the start of a painful shake-out of employment in the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

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