1 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Brexit Damage Still Very Visible in the U.K.'s Trade Data

The U.K. continued to run a very large trade deficit in Q3, largely due to the surge in natural gas prices.

The evidence that Brexit is disrupting U.K. trade, meanwhile, is mounting, particularly in the services data.

These two factors mean the trade deficit is on course to be the largest since the 70s this year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

27 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the MPC Pick Prolonged High Inflation or a Mortgage Crisis

• A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
• Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
• Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Capex will Continue to Recover, Despite the Risk of Recession

• Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
• We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
• But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.

Gabriella DickensU.K.