- The U.K. economy was hit harder by the pandemic and has struggled to catch up to the Eurozone since.
- Britain's faster rollout of vaccines led many to assume that it would close the gap with the Eurozone in Q3...
- ...But near-real-time indicators imply Q3 GDP growth actually was stronger in the Eurozone than the U.K.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
- The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
- Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably...
...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same extent as its peers.
Brexit is one reason why we expect the recovery in GDP to slow as it approaches its pre-Covid level.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Recoveries after recessions usually receive substantial support in their infancy from the inventories component of GDP.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The pound's retreat during June to $1.39, from $1.42, will have left many investors who have been long sterling this year—a crowded trade—nursing unrealised losses.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The hawkish surprise last week from the U.S. Fed has left many investors questioning whether the MPC will follow suit this Thursday.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Incoming data remain consistent with our above-consensus forecast that GDP will leap by about 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
A superficial glance at the U.K.'s trade data suggests that the Brexit bullet has been miraculously dodged.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The U.K. economy almost certainly was the worst performer in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
We expect the March GDP report, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered renewed momentum even before restrictions on business activity had been lifted.
samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
