U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
borrowing
- Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
- The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
- ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment essentially held steady in Q3, despite the fall in GDP; vacancies have remained at a high level too.
- But the rise in corporate borrowing costs looks set to be sharp enough to spark a wave of redundancies next year.
- Wage growth was far too strong for the MPC too tolerate in September, but timelier data point to a slowdown.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
- ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
- Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- The U-turn in the direction of fiscal policy has offset the better news on the outlook for borrowing costs.
- Plausible assumptions suggest Autumn Statement measures will inflict a 0.3% blow to GDP in 2023/24.
- A halving of energy price support for households in April would raise the path for CPI inflation by about 2.0pp.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
