Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

borrowing

1 Sept 2021 Households are Prioritising Debt Repayments Over Having Fun

  • Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
  • The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
  • Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Aug 2021 The MPC's New Forecasts Set a High Bar for Future Upside Surprises

The MPC's forecasts imply markets' expectations for future rate hikes are about right...
...But the risks to the MPC's economic forecasts now are skewed firmly to the downside.
We now expect the first rate hike in Q2 2023, slightly earlier than before, with QE wind-down coming later.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2021 Money Data Show Households Still Aren't Throwing Caution to the Wind

The BoE’s money and credit data suggest that the economy continued to recover in May, but remained constrained by households' and businesses’ lingering cautiousness.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 June 2021 The Bullish Case for Sterling is Weak; the MPC Won't Hike First

The pound's retreat during June to $1.39, from $1.42, will have left many investors who have been long sterling this year—a crowded trade—nursing unrealised losses.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 June 2021 A Copycat Hawkish Surprise from the BoE this week

The hawkish surprise last week from the U.S. Fed has left many investors questioning whether the MPC will follow suit this Thursday.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2021 Remortgaging Unlikely to Recover to Pre-Covid Levels Anytime Soon

While the housing market is running hot this year, remortgaging activity has remained extremely weak.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 May 2021 Mortgage Lending to Remain High Through the Summer

The most eye-catching development in the March money and credit release was the surge in gross mortgage lending to a record high of £35.6B, up from £28.2B in February.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Apr 2021 The MPC Likely will Wait Another Month to Taper its Gilt Purchases

The key question for investors next week is whether the MPC will immediately taper its purchases of government bonds.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Apr 2021 Will Public Borrowing Continue to Undershoot the OBR's Forecast?

The public finances picked up the strain from Covid-19 last year, but have come through the crisis in better shape than the OBR feared, even as recently as at last month's Budget.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Mar 2021 The Chancellor has Engineered a Soft Landing for the Housing Market

The near-term outlook for the housing market has improved following the Budget.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Mar 2021 January GDP Likely was Less Dreadful than the Consensus Expects

We expect January's GDP report, released on Friday, to reveal that output fell by about 4.0% month-to-month, less than the 4.9% consensus.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

The Chancellor's near-term largesse in the Budget last week makes us more confident in predicting a swift rebound in economic activity in Q2 and Q3. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR’s new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak’s second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

The Budget comes at a sensitive time for the gilt market, following the recent jump in yields.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault,