Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

borrowing

23 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Chances of Public Borrowing Falling Below 3% of GDP are Remote

  • Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
  • The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
  • ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Stable Employment in Q3 Shouldn't Undermine Conviction in Future Falls

  • Employment essentially held steady in Q3, despite the fall in GDP; vacancies have remained at a high level too.
  • But the rise in corporate borrowing costs looks set to be sharp enough to spark a wave of redundancies next year.
  • Wage growth was far too strong for the MPC too tolerate in September, but timelier data point to a slowdown.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Construction Output will Fall Twice as Sharply as GDP Next Year

  • The construction sector continued to recover in Q3, as supply constraints and labour shortages eased...
  • ...But we doubt it will defy gravity for long, given the surge in borrowing costs and the looming fiscal squeeze.
  • Given the pro-cyclical nature of construction output, we expect it to fall by 3% in 2023, twice as much as GDP.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

7 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review, Same Dismal Outlook, but a Different Mix of Drivers

  • The U-turn in the direction of fiscal policy has offset the better news on the outlook for borrowing costs.
  • Plausible assumptions suggest Autumn Statement measures will inflict a 0.3% blow to GDP in 2023/24.
  • A halving of energy price support for households in April would raise the path for CPI inflation by about 2.0pp.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence