Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The MPC's forecasts signal clearly that markets' medium-term expectations for Bank Rate are too high.
But concerns about persistence in domestic price setting, and looser fiscal policy, will spur further hikes.
We now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate to 2.00% in September and 2.25% in November, and then to pause.
The effective interest rate on the stock of mortgages rose by only 11bp in H1, but will jump by 30bp in H2...
...and by a further 30bp over the course of 2023, if markets are right about the path for risk-free rates.
Firms still are very exposed to movements in short- rates; the transmission mechanism remains powerful.
House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
The tax cut plans of Tory leadership contenders should be treated with a pinch of salt, given past experience.
Tax cuts won't lift GDP, if they are financed partially by spending reductions; the latter have a higher multiplier.
We doubt that even Ms. Truss would take away the BoE's independence.
CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.
BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...
...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.
Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.
Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.
Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.
The composite PMI points to solid quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.7% in Q2, despite falling in April.
The PMI, however, likely is too upbeat; it excludes government expenditure and retail sales, which are falling.
It might also be too strong when turnover is being lifted by price rises; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence