Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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18 Feb 2021 The Down-Weighting of Services will Hold Back Core Inflation

The Down-Weighting of Services will Hold Back Core Inflation

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

16 Feb 2021 Weight Changes will Prevent CPI Inflation Dipping in January

Weight Changes will Prevent CPI Inflation Dipping in January

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

17 Dec 2020 Risks of a 2021 Inflation Overshoot are Low, Absent No-Deal

The decline in CPI inflation to 0.3% in November, from 0.7% in October, likely doesn't represent a shift in the underlying trend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

14 Dec 2020 How Far Would Sterling Fall in the Event of No-deal?

Attempting to forecast the likely level of sterling in the event of a no-deal Brexit is more of an art than a science, as it is impossible to know the extent to which this act of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Dec 2020 19:10U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

19 Oct 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Jumped in September, But to a Still-low Rate

We expect September's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation rose to 0.6%, from 0.2% in August, in line with the consensus but above the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Oct 2020 20:10U.K.

17 Sept 2020 Inflation to Stay Below 1%, Despite Little Impact from the VAT Cut

CPI inflation fell to 0.2% in August, from 1.0% in July, but exceeded our forecast and the consensus, both zero.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

21 May 2020 Zero CPI Inflation Still Likely by the Summer, Following April's Big Fall

CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th May 2020 14:00U.K.

19 May 2020 Inflation Likely Slumped Below 1% in April, on Course for Zero by Q3

April's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation plunged and is heading quickly to a near-zero rate by the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th May 2020 14:00U.K.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Apr 2020 14:10U.K.

17 Jan 2020 December's Retail Sales Report Will Dampen Rate Cut Speculation

The consensus forecast for a 0.6% month-to month rise in retail sales volumes in December--data released today--is far too timid.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

16 Jan 2020 CPI Inflation Will Rebound in Q1, Weakening the Case for Stimulus

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 jumped to 63%, from 44%, following the release of December's consumer prices report.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

13 Jan 2020 Downside Risk to the Consensus for December's CPI Report

December's consumer prices report looks set to show that CPI inflation was stable at 1.5%--in line with the consensus--though the risks are skewed to the downside.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2020 19:10U.K.

23 May 2019 No Need to Reduce Inflation Forecasts After April's Low Print

CPI inflation rose only to 2.1% in April, from 1.9% in March, undershooting the 2.2% consensus and MPC forecasts, as well as our own 2.3% estimate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd May 2019 15:10U.K.

22 May 2019 The MPC Won't Be "Indifferent" if Sterling Falls Further

On a trade-weighted basis, sterling has dropped by only 1.5% since the start of the month, but it is easy to envisage circumstances in which it would fall significantly further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st May 2019 14:10U.K.

20 May 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Exceeded the MPC's Expectations in April

We expect April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation leapt to 2.3%, from 1.9% in March, exceeding the MPC's 2.2% forecast in the latest...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th May 2019 20:10U.K.

15 January 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell in December to Within a Whisker of the 2% Target

Economists are evenly split on December's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, with half expecting CPI inflation to fall to 2.1%, from 2.3% in November, and the other...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2019 13:10U.K.

19 July 2018 Sub-2% Core Inflation is Here to Stay, But the MPC Won't Blink

June's consumer price figures threw a last minute curve-ball at the MPC ahead of its key meeting on August 2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jul 2018 18:10U.K.

21 May 2018 Inflation Likely Fell Further in April, but a Summer Rebound Looms

April's consumer price figures, due on Wednesday, are set to show that CPI inflation has fallen, primarily due to the earlier timing of Easter this year than last. We

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th May 2018 18:22U.K.

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