Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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6 Apr 2022 Falling Health Sector Output Likely Caused GDP to Drop in February

Output in the consumer services sector recovered strongly in February, assisted by fading Covid fears.

...But output in the health sector likely fell considerably, due to sharp falls in Covid testing and vaccinations.

Manufacturing output was hit by a slump in car production, while building work was disrupted by storms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Feb 2022 The OBR's New Borrowing Forecasts will Make the Chancellor Grimace

  • Rising debt interest payments explain why January's surplus was smaller than the OBR forecast.
  • We expect the OBR to revise up its forecast for public borrowing in 2022/23 to about £97B, from £83B.
  • Mr. Sunak still will meet his fiscal rules, but will preserve his remaining headroom until nearer the next election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Feb 2022 The PMI Points to a Swift Recovery from Omicron and Solid Q1 Growth

  • Markit's composite PMI points to brisk GDP growth in Q1; the Omicron hit has faded quickly.
  • Other indicators, however, including the ONS' BIC survey, are less upbeat, so we expect 0.6% q/q growth.
  • Output prices in the manufacturing and services sec- tor are still surging; a March rate hike is a done deal.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Feb 2022 The Recovery in Construction Output will Gain a New Lease of Life this Year

  • Easing supply constraints and labour shortages should boost the recovery in construction in H1 2022.
  • Further ahead, falling real incomes and increases in mortgage rates will dampen housebuilding activity...
  • ...Even so, we expect construction output by year end to be about 1.5% above its 2019 average level.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

8 Feb 2022 Surging Healthcare Activities Likely Cushioned GDP in December

  • Business surveys point to substantial damage to GDP in December from Omicron; hospitality was hit hard...
  • ...But surging Test & Trace and vaccine activities likely boosted month-to-month growth in GDP by 0.7pp.
  • We look for a 0.6% month-to-month drop in GDP, which likely will not cause the MPC to blink.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Jan 2022 January's Lower Composite PMI won't Distract the MPC

  • The composite PMI edged down in January; other indicators signal a further month-to-month fall in GDP too.
  • The MPC, however, will be encouraged by the pick-up in the forward-looking components of Markit's survey...
  • ...and concerned by signs the labour market is continuing to tighten quickly and services inflation still is rising.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

17 Jan 2022 The Recovery is Over; Now Comes the Hard Part

  • GDP surpassed its pre-Covid level in November, albeit with support from some unsustainable sources.
  • Omicron has temporarily set the economy back, but GDP should return to November's level by March.
  • Thereafter, however, GDP growth likely will be slow, due to the squeeze on households' disposable incomes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence