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Markets now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate twice next year, with the first hike as soon as February.
The MPC, however, will focus on labour market slack and the prospects for its elimination, not just inflation.
The recovery has faded, implying many furloughed staff will be underemployed in Q4; the MPC needn't rush.
We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.
We think the June consumer prices report, released next Wednesday, will show that CPI inflation rose to 2.2%, from 2.1% in May.
Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.
May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.
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