Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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accommodation

18 Nov 2021 October's CPI Data Tip the Scales Towards a December Rate Hike

  • October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
  • The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
  • Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Nov 2021 October's CPI Inflation Print Likely Will Exceeded the Consensus

  • Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
  • Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
  • Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Nov 2021 Is it Already Clear the End of the Furlough Scheme has been Painless?

  • Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
  • Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
  • October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Oct 2021 September's CPI Data will be the Calm Before the Storm

  • CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
  • Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
  • ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Oct 2021 Recovery Sluggish Even Prior to the Withdrawal of Fiscal Support

  • August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
  • Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
  • We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Sept 2021 Don't Expect a Hawkish Pivot from the MPC This Week

Markets now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate twice next year, with the first hike as soon as February.

The MPC, however, will focus on labour market slack and the prospects for its elimination, not just inflation.

The recovery has faded, implying many furloughed staff will be underemployed in Q4; the MPC needn't rush.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Sept 2021 Higher CPI Inflation Still Due to Only a Few Components

  • The month-to-month rise in the core CPI in August was only 0.1pp bigger than the average in the 2010s.
  • Used cars and computer games drove the large monthly gain; no sign of broad-based price increases.
  • Higher energy prices will push up the headline rate to 4% in Q4 and Q1, but the MPC needn't blink.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2021 The Consensus for August CPI Inflation Looks too Low

  • We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
  • Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
  • ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Sept 2021 Hidden Slack will Rise More than the Unemployment Rate, Post-Furlough

  • The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
  • ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Sept 2021 July GDP to Undershoot the Consensus with a No-Change Print

  • GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
  • Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
  • A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Aug 2021 CPI Base Effects Distract from July's Slowing in Core Price Rises

  • The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
  • CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
  • ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Aug 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Sharply in July, Taking the Consensus by Surprise

  • CPI inflation probably declined to 2.1% in July from 2.5% in June, below the consensus, 2.3%.
  • Clothing prices appear to have fallen sharply, as usual; they dropped only marginally a year ago.
  • Surveys suggest the pace of increases in catering services prices has slowed down.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Aug 2021 Furlough Usage isn't Falling Fast Enough to Signal a Painless End in Q4

The proportion of staff furloughed fell to 5.7% at the end of June, from 7.5% a month earlier...
...But surveys point to only a marginal fall in early July, and still high usage in fully recovered sectors.
Firms likely won't fully relinquish recent productivity gains; the employment rate will drop back in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 July 2021 Inflation Data to Force Early End to QE, but a 2022 Rate Hike isn't Likely

We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 July 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Rose Further in June, on Course for 3% by Year-End

We think the June consumer prices report, released next Wednesday, will show that CPI inflation rose to 2.2%, from 2.1% in May.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 July 2021 Insolvencies Will Rise as Support is Withdrawn, But Not to 2008 Levels

Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2021 May GDP to Show the Recovery Shifting Down from Top Gear

May's GDP report, released on Friday, likely will show that the economic recovery decelerated, despite the further reopening of the consumer services sector mid-way through the month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 June 2021 Reopening Price Rises to Drive Above-Consensus May CPI Print

We think CPI inflation picked up to 1.9% in May, from 1.5% in April, exceeding the 1.8% consensus. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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