Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2022

  • In one line: House prices fall for the second month in a row. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

30 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Escalating Debt Repayments Point to a Full-Blown Recession

Households are saving more than usual, taking on less credit, and increasing ad-hoc mortgage repayments.

Firms also are choosing to delever; October’s net repayment of external finance was the second largest ever.

House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October; we expect them to fall further this winter.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 Nov 2022 UK Monitor House Prices have Scope to Rebound in the mid-2020s

Incoming data are consistent with our forecast for a sharp fall in house purchases and an 8% drop in prices.

The MPC, however, won’t keep Bank Rate at 4% indefinitely; house prices should rebound in the mid-2020s.

Mortgage payments’ share of incomes will not return to 2010s levels; hefty rent rises have raised the floor.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Stabilisation of Retail Sales in Q4 will Prove to be a False Dawn

  • Retail sales might hold steady in Q4, given the boost to disposable incomes from reversing the NI hike...
  • ...But they likely will fall again in 2023, as real incomes are hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support.
  • A risk premium no longer is priced-in to gilts and sterling, but new strains might emerge if energy prices surge.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, September

  •  In one line: House prices stalling in the face of surging mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October 2022

  • In one line:  Still no sign of a slowing in the pace of core price rises yet. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Brace for an Above-Consensus CPI Inflation Print for October

  • We look for an above-consensus jump in CPI inflation to 10.9% in October, from 10.2% in September.
  • Food prices continued to rise quickly and energy prices soared; core CPI inflation likely remained high too.
  • The BRC’s non-food shop prices index leapt; services inflation likely was supported by education and rents.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, September 2022

  • In one line: Elevated energy prices are keeping the deficit large. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September & Q3

  • In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Downturn in House Prices is Only Just Getting Started

  • Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
  • Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
  • Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, November

  • In one line: New forecasts and guidance suggest the end of the hiking cycle is near.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Oct 2022 U.K. Monitor No Shortage of Scary Charts Foretelling a Haunting 2023

  • Rising mortgage rates, energy prices and unemploy- ment will all drain the life from the economy next year.
  • Real government spending will be strangled in each of the next three years, in order to get the debt ratio falling.
  • A further rise in long-term sickness will be another un- welcome shock; no escaping a prolonged recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, August

  • In one line:  Indicative of market conditions before mortgage rates took off. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September 2022

  • In one line:  No let up in the rate of core price rises yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Fiscal Announcements, September 2022

  • In one line: £31B of savings found, a further £40B or so to go.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, August 2022

  • In one line: Huge by past standards, and looks set to remain so. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, August

  • In one line: A big step closer to a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September 2022

  • In one line: The start of a prolonged fall in house prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts & Balance of Payments, Q2

  • In one line: Revisions reveal even more long-term damage from Covid than previously thought. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence