- In one line: The downturn is gathering momentum.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: “Nothing is decided”; markets need to price-in a higher chance of no-change in Bank Rate.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Core price rises have slowed sharply, supporting an MPC pause next month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A recession in all but name.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: More evidence that core price rises are slowing.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
- Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: No strong signals on the terminal rate, but the crumbling of hawkish dissent suggests we are close.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
