Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, January 2023

  • In one line: The overall trade deficit likely will continue to narrow this year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January

  • In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BoE Governor Speech

  • In one line: “Nothing is decided”; markets need to price-in a higher chance of no-change in Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: House prices are continuing to fall.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, December

  • In one line: House prices are succumbing to elevated mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January 2023

  • In one line: Core price rises have slowed sharply, supporting an MPC pause next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, December 2022

  • In one line: The overall trade deficit widened on the back of high gas prices.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4

  • In one line: A recession in all but name. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November

  • In one line: The surge in mortgage rates is starting to kick in.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, December 2022

  • In one line: More evidence that core price rises are slowing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, November 2022

  • In one line: The overall trade deficit is being flattered by a surplus in erratics. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November

  • In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts & Balance of Payments, Q3

  • In one line: The U.K. will continue to underperform the rest of the G7. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

21 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Official House Price Data are Defying Gravity, but not for Much Longer

  • The official house price data rose by 0.3% month-to-month in October, despite the jump in mortgage rates.
  • But mortgage rates will stay high in 2023, and real disposable incomes will fall; house prices will drop...
  • ...We expect a peak-to-trough fall of 8%, though we are more optimistic on the longer-term outlook.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December

  • In one line: No strong signals on the terminal rate, but the crumbling of hawkish dissent suggests we are close.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence