UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, March

• In one word: Overkill.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, January 2023

• In one line: The overall trade deficit likely will continue to narrow this year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January

• In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BoE Governor Speech

• In one line: “Nothing is decided”; markets need to price-in a higher chance of no-change in Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2023

• In one line: House prices are continuing to fall.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, December 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit widened on the back of high gas prices.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4

• In one line: A recession in all but name. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, January 2023

• In one line: House prices continue to fall.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, November 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit is being flattered by a surplus in erratics. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November

• In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts & Balance of Payments, Q3

• In one line: The U.K. will continue to underperform the rest of the G7. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December

• In one line: No strong signals on the terminal rate, but the crumbling of hawkish dissent suggests we are close.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, October 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit is being flattered by a surplus in erratics. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October

• In one line: Recovering from the Queen’s funeral; the trend still is downward sloping. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2022

• In one line: House prices fall for the second month in a row. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

1 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Brexit Damage Still Very Visible in the U.K.'s Trade Data

The U.K. continued to run a very large trade deficit in Q3, largely due to the surge in natural gas prices.

The evidence that Brexit is disrupting U.K. trade, meanwhile, is mounting, particularly in the services data.

These two factors mean the trade deficit is on course to be the largest since the 70s this year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, September 2022

• In one line: Elevated energy prices are keeping the deficit large. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September & Q3

• In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, November

• In one line: New forecasts and guidance suggest the end of the hiking cycle is near.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, October 2022

• In one line: The sharp decline won’t be the last. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.