- In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: “Nothing is decided”; markets need to price-in a higher chance of no-change in Bank Rate.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A recession in all but name.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: No strong signals on the terminal rate, but the crumbling of hawkish dissent suggests we are close.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Recovering from the Queen’s funeral; the trend still is downward sloping.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
- The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
- ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The U.K. is the only G7 country in which GDP fell in Q3
and has never recovered to its pre-Covid peak.
- Households’ real spending will keep falling until the end of 2023, as fiscal and monetary headwinds intensify.
- Higher interest rates will weigh on business investment and trigger a sharp downturn in residential investment.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
