U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
U.K. Retail Sales
- In one line: Too early to claim a recovery has taken hold.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: A pause from the downward trend, but demand will remain subdued in the first half of the year.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: The rise in February does not necessarily suggest consumers are willing to spend; confidence remains weak.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Retail sales likely haven’t hit a floor yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Sales volumes likely fell further in January, but a late 2023 recovery is coming into view.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts due to surging prices.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Some festive cheer for retailers, but the outlook is gloomy
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Retail sales volumes fell by 0.4% month-to-month in November, down to 1.5% below their pre-Covid level.
- The outlook is grim; we expect sales to drop in December, due to the heavy snowfall and strike action...
- ...Sales should then fall in lockstep with real disposable incomes in 2023; both look set to drop by 2%.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts in the face of surging prices.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Partial recovery in Q4 will be reversed next year.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Retail sales might hold steady in Q4, given the boost to disposable incomes from reversing the NI hike...
- ...But they likely will fall again in 2023, as real incomes are hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support.
- A risk premium no longer is priced-in to gilts and sterling, but new strains might emerge if energy prices surge.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: The rise in sales in October will prove a false dawn
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Outlook for retailers remains gloomy.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Retail sales in September were 2.1% below their 2019 average level; don't blame the extra public holiday.
- The support to households' incomes from government policies will rise in Q4, then fall sharply next year.
- Incomes also will be hit in 2023 by mortgage refinancing and job cuts; expect retail sales to keep falling.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Drop reflects real income pressures, rather than the extra public holiday.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: No sign of a boost to sales from government support measures.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
- The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
- The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Weakness likely won’t be sustained, given the additional support from the government.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
- We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
- Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
- Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
- BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
