Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

U.K. Retail Sales

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, February 2023

  • In one line: A pause from the downward trend, but demand will remain subdued in the first half of the year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumers' Confidence, February 2023

  • In one line: The rise in February does not necessarily suggest consumers are willing to spend; confidence remains weak.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, January 2023

  • In one line: Retail sales likely haven’t hit a floor yet. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January 2023

  • In one line: Sales volumes likely fell further in January, but a late 2023 recovery is coming into view.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, December 2022

  • In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts due to surging prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, December 2022

  • In one line: Some festive cheer for retailers, but the outlook is gloomy

Gabriella DickensU.K.

20 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Retail Sales will Continue their Downward Trend well into 2023

  • Retail sales volumes fell by 0.4% month-to-month in November, down to 1.5% below their pre-Covid level.
  • The outlook is grim; we expect sales to drop in December, due to the heavy snowfall and strike action...
  • ...Sales should then fall in lockstep with real disposable incomes in 2023; both look set to drop by 2%.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, November 2022

  • In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts in the face of surging prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2022

  • In one line: Partial recovery in Q4 will be reversed next year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

22 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Stabilisation of Retail Sales in Q4 will Prove to be a False Dawn

  • Retail sales might hold steady in Q4, given the boost to disposable incomes from reversing the NI hike...
  • ...But they likely will fall again in 2023, as real incomes are hit hard by the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support.
  • A risk premium no longer is priced-in to gilts and sterling, but new strains might emerge if energy prices surge.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October 2022

  • In one line: The rise in sales in October will prove a false dawn

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, October 2022

  • In one line: Outlook for retailers remains gloomy.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Retail Sales will Remain on a Downward Trend Next Year

  • Retail sales in September were 2.1% below their 2019 average level; don't blame the extra public holiday.
  • The support to households' incomes from government policies will rise in Q4, then fall sharply next year.
  • Incomes also will be hit in 2023 by mortgage refinancing and job cuts; expect retail sales to keep falling. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, September 2022

  • In one line: Drop reflects real income pressures, rather than the extra public holiday.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September 2022

  • In one line: No sign of a boost to sales from government support measures.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's Drop in Retail Sales Makes a 50bp Bank Rate Hike More Likely

  • The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
  • The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
  • The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, August 2022

  • In one line: Weakness likely won’t be sustained, given the additional support from the government. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

13 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Q3 GDP Set to be Unchanged from Q2, Undershooting the MPC's forecast

  • June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
  • We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
  • Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market and Retail Sales Data to Persuade the MPC to be Cautious

  • Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
  • Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
  • BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence