U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
U.K. Public Finances
- In one line: OBR’s full-year borrowing forecast is in the right ball park, despite February's jump.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Much lower than expected borrowing this year broadens the Chancellor’s options.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Initial impressions deceive; the trend is still better than the OBR anticipated.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Hefty borrowing due to the high cost of energy price interventions.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
- The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
- ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Cost of energy price support will be greater in future months.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
- Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
- Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Austerity measures are coming.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Gilt yields rose again yesterday, as the BoE confirmed
its bond-buying programme will end on Friday.
- Signs that the government has changed tack, however, continue to amass; the MPC can be cautious.
- Reducing public sector investment back to its share of GDP in the 2010s would offset the tax cut stimulus.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
- The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
- We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Tax cuts which disproportionately benefit the top 1% of earners will do little to boost demand.
- Most households are worse off, because the associated depreciation of sterling will raise the price level by 1.5%.
- Mr. Kwarteng likely will impose tough spending limits in the Budget, to try to reverse the jump in gilt yields.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Public borrowing has tracked the OBR's forecast this year, but government spending now will soar.
- Loans to energy suppliers, to limit energy price rises, will boost the cash requirement, but not borrowing.
- We look for a gross financing requirement of about £325B in 2023/24, but the outlook is very uncertain.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Revisions leave year-to-date borrowing in line with the OBR’s forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
- We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
- Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
- If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
- Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
