Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

U.K. Public Finances

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, February 2023

  • In one line: OBR’s full-year borrowing forecast is in the right ball park, despite February's jump. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, January 2023

  • In one line: Much lower than expected borrowing this year broadens the Chancellor’s options.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, December 2022

  • In one line: Initial impressions deceive; the trend is still better than the OBR anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, November 2022

  • In one line: Hefty borrowing due to the high cost of energy price interventions.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Chances of Public Borrowing Falling Below 3% of GDP are Remote

  • Borrowing undershot the consensus in October due to the timing and under-recording of energy support.
  • The OBR's GDP forecasts assume an implausibly low saving rate and too rapid productivity growth...
  • ...Plans for very tight public spending won't be stuck to; borrowing eventually will settle at about 4% of GDP.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October 2022

  • In one line: Cost of energy price support will be greater in future months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Nov 2022 UK Monitor The Downturn in House Prices is Only Just Getting Started

  • Timely data show house prices now are falling in the face of surging mortgage rates and falling real incomes.
  • Supply is becoming scarcer, but it is not keeping up with cratering demand, we still expect prices to fall by 8%.
  • Watch out for a jump in wage growth in September; many public sector workers received a 5% pay rise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Gilt Yields Likely to be Lower by Year- end, as the MPC Hikes Cautiously

  • Gilt yields rose again yesterday, as the BoE confirmed
    its bond-buying programme will end on Friday.
  • Signs that the government has changed tack, however, continue to amass; the MPC can be cautious.
  • Reducing public sector investment back to its share of GDP in the 2010s would offset the tax cut stimulus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Surveys Point to a Small Drop in GDP in Q3, but this is Just the Start

  • PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
  • The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
  • We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Mini-Budget Measures Won't Revitalise the Economy Next Year

  • Tax cuts which disproportionately benefit the top 1% of earners will do little to boost demand.
  • Most households are worse off, because the associated depreciation of sterling will raise the price level by 1.5%.
  • Mr. Kwarteng likely will impose tough spending limits in the Budget, to try to reverse the jump in gilt yields. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Gilt Issuance to Hit Eye-Watering Levels Next Year

  • Public borrowing has tracked the OBR's forecast this year, but government spending now will soar.
  • Loans to energy suppliers, to limit energy price rises, will boost the cash requirement, but not borrowing.
  • We look for a gross financing requirement of about £325B in 2023/24, but the outlook is very uncertain.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, August 2022

  • In one line: Revisions leave year-to-date borrowing in line with the OBR’s forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Q3 GDP Set to be Unchanged from Q2, Undershooting the MPC's forecast

  • June's 0.2% month-to-month rise in GDP was due to the unwinding of the Jubilee hit; the trend is flat.
  • We’re pencilling-in a 0.2pp hit to September GDP from the extra public holiday, but can’t rule out a bigger fall.
  • Even excluding the impact of the Queen’s funeral, Q3 GDP looks set to undershoot the MPC’s forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 Sept 2022 UK Monitor How will Energy Price Interventions Impact the Inflation Outlook?

  • Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
    trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
  • If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
  • Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence