Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

U.K. Car Registrations

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, October 2022

  • In one line: Slight improvement will be short-lived. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, September 2022

  • In one line: New car sales now are unlikely to recover until the end of 2023. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

8 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's CPI Report will Temper Bets on a 75bp Rate Hike

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 9.9% in August, from 10.1% in
    July, returning to the level forecast by the MPC.
  • A slump in motor fuel CPI inflation likely dominated the further pick-up in food inflation.
  • BRC data show the pace of core goods price rises eased in August; July's large jump in rents won't be repeated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, August 2022

  • In one line: New car sales remain weak amid the fall in real disposable incomes.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

19 Aug 2022 UK Monitor The U.K.'s High Inflation is Due to Fiscal Policy, Not an Overheating Economy

The U.K.'s relatively high rate of CPI inflation is largely due to government policies.

The energy price shock has been softened by grants, not tax cuts; VAT and NICs hikes have also played a role.

Higher core goods inflation than in the Eurozone is largely due to Brexit, not stronger underlying demand.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2022 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Neared 10% in July, in line with the MPC's Forecast

CPI inflation likely jumped to 9.9% in July, from 9.4% in June, led by rises in motor fuel and food CPI inflation.

Eurozone data and the BRC's figures both point to a renewed rise in core goods CPI inflation in July.

Surveys show services prices have continued to rise at an above-average rate, albeit less quickly than in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Jubilee-Linked Drop in June GDP to Obscure the Economy's Pulse

We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.

GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.

Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, July 2022

  • In one line: Still well below pre-Covid norms; a meaningful recovery is at least a year away. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will a Household Saving Drawdown Keep a Winter Recession at Bay?

Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.

On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.

Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 July 2022 Food and Energy Inflation Likely Drove Up the Headline Rate in June

We think that CPI inflation leapt to 9.4% in June, from 9.1% in May, exceeding the MPC’s 9.1% forecast. 

But the upside surprise will be due to a massive rise in motor fuel prices, and another increase in food inflation. 

Core inflation likely fell to 5.8%, from 5.9% in May; June 2021’s surge in goods prices likely wasn’t repeated. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 June 2022 CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in May

We think the headline rate of CPI inflation was stable at 9.0% in May, despite rising food and fuel inflation. 

Core CPI inflation likely fell; data suggest the rise in goods prices didn’t match the big jump a year ago. 

Retailers are starting to accept a squeeze on the margins, while used car prices are continuing to fall. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 June 2022 April GDP Data Will Confirm the Recovery has Stalled

We look for a mere 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in April, only just reversing the prior month's fall.

While output in the manufacturing and distribution sectors probably rebounded.

The consumer services sector was hit by the real income squeeze, and Covid-related spending plunged.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 June 2022 Signs of a Slowdown will Restrain the MPC to a 25bp Hike Next Week

The fall in May’s composite PMI to a 15-month low is a clear sign that growth is faltering as real incomes drop.

Retail and car sales also have been weak; we expect a quarter-over-quarter drop in GDP in Q2 of about 0.5%.

May’s PMI makes it more likely the MPC will hike by just 25bp this month; markets' expectations are too high.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May 2022

  • In one line: Private car sales decline in May as real incomes fall. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 May 2022 Net Upside Risk to the MPC's 9.1% Forecast for April CPI Inflation

CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.

BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...

...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 May 2022 GDP Likely was Unchanged in March, Preluding a Contraction in Q2

The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.

Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.

Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, April 2022

  • In one line: Private car sales remain under pressure from the intensifying squeeze on real disposable incomes. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence