Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, November 2022

  • In one line: The manufacturing sector likely is in recession.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November

  • In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts, despite the additional government support to incomes. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

25 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Why Do We Expect Unemployment to Rise Sooner than Official Forecasters?

Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.

Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.

Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Nov 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Still Point to a Recession and Intense Price Pressures

  • S&P's survey points to another 0.2% q/q drop in GDP in Q4 and the likelihood of a faster decline in Q1.
  • The employment index remained slightly above its long-run average, but it tends to lag the PMI.
  • Output prices still are rising too fast for the MPC to tolerate, but leading indicators point to a slowing soon.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October 2022

  • In one line: Clear signs house prices now are falling. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, October 2022

  • In one line: Easing supply constraints are enabling output to keep rising; the 2023 outlook is bleak.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, October 2022

In one line: No significant let up in price rises yet.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October 2022

  • In one line: A recession in the manufacturing sector is afoot. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, October

  • In one line: The support to spending from government policies won’t last long.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2022

  • In one line: Building evidence that housing market activity is slowing, as mortgage rates surge.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, September 2022

In one line: Creeping towards a recession, but no let up in price rises yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, September 2022

  • In one line: Manufacturing sector is on the brink of a recession. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September

  • In one line: Manufacturing sector on the brink of a recession. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

16 Sept 2022 UK Monitor The Improved Inflation Outlook Implies the MPC will Stick to a 50bp Hike

  • We think the MPC will raise Bank Rate by 50bp next week, despite other central banks rushing ahead...
  • ...Q3 GDP is set to undershoot the MPC’s latest forecast, while the inflation outlook has improved greatly.
  • Proposed tax cuts are too small to move the inflation needle, and likely will be partly funded by spending cuts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market and Retail Sales Data to Persuade the MPC to be Cautious

  • Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
  • Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
  • BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August 2022

  • In one line: Housing market activity is buckling under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, August 2022

  • In one line:  Output still falling; higher mortgage rates spell trouble for house builders.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence