UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, September

•  In one line: House prices stalling in the face of surging mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, September/October 2022

• In one line: Wage growth is near its peak. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, September 2022

• In one line: Elevated energy prices are keeping the deficit large. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September & Q3

• In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, September 2022

• In one line: Households are acting with caution when deciding to save less and borrow more. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

24 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Retail Sales will Remain on a Downward Trend Next Year

• Retail sales in September were 2.1% below their 2019 average level; don't blame the extra public holiday.
• The support to households' incomes from government policies will rise in Q4, then fall sharply next year.
• Incomes also will be hit in 2023 by mortgage refinancing and job cuts; expect retail sales to keep falling. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, September 2022

• In one line: Austerity measures are coming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, September 2022

• In one line: Drop reflects real income pressures, rather than the extra public holiday.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September 2022

• In one line:  No let up in the rate of core price rises yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Fiscal Announcements, September 2022

• In one line: £31B of savings found, a further £40B or so to go.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Fiscal Policy, September 2022

• In one line: Fiscal U-turn insufficient to avert a credit-led recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2022

• In one line: Building evidence that housing market activity is slowing, as mortgage rates surge.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September 2022

• In one line: No sign of a boost to sales from government support measures.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August/September 2022

• In one line: Employment not in free fall, yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, September 2022

• In one line: The calm before the storm.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, September 2022

In one line: Creeping towards a recession, but no let up in price rises yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, September 2022

• In one line: New car sales now are unlikely to recover until the end of 2023. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, September 2022

• In one line: Manufacturing sector is on the brink of a recession. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, September 2022

• In one line: The start of a prolonged fall in house prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

28 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Surveys Point to a Small Drop in GDP in Q3, but this is Just the Start

• PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
• The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
• We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.