- In one line: Wage growth is near its peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Contraction makes the U.K. a global outlier.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Retail sales in September were 2.1% below their 2019 average level; don't blame the extra public holiday.
- The support to households' incomes from government policies will rise in Q4, then fall sharply next year.
- Incomes also will be hit in 2023 by mortgage refinancing and job cuts; expect retail sales to keep falling.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Austerity measures are coming.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: No let up in the rate of core price rises yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: £31B of savings found, a further £40B or so to go.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Fiscal U-turn insufficient to avert a credit-led recession.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: No sign of a boost to sales from government support measures.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Employment not in free fall, yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
In one line: Creeping towards a recession, but no let up in price rises yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
- The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
- We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.