Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Productivity

6 May 2022 New Forecasts Imply the MPC Intends Only One-to-Two More 25bp Hikes

At least two MPC members now think Bank Rate does not need to rise any further in the near term.

The MPC’s three-year ahead forecast for inflation, based on market rates, is its lowest for over 13 years.

Markets’ rate expectations fell yesterday, but they still look too high in light of the MPC's new projections.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Apr 2022 Public Borrowing Likely to Exceed the OBR's Forecast This Year

The estimate of public borrowing in 2021/22 almost certainly will be revised down over the coming months.

But we think public borrowing is on course to overshoot the OBR's forecast in 2022/23 and beyond.

The OBR's assumption that productivity will grow at double the pace seen in the 2010s is implausible.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Mar 2022 Incomes Still Set to be Pummelled, Despite Last-Minute Tax Changes

  • Tax and benefit changes will lop 1.3% off disposable incomes in 2022-23, despite Mr. Sunak's new tax cuts.
  • The Chancellor could have been bolder; he has more headroom against his fiscal targets than in October.
  • Don't bank on extra pre-election tax cuts; the OBR is too upbeat on households' spending and productivity.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

9 Nov 2021 Is it Already Clear the End of the Furlough Scheme has been Painless?

  • Nearly 4% of all staff still were furloughed in September, yet redundancies appear to have remained low.
  • Involuntarily part-time working, however, likely became much more widespread in Q4.
  • October's labour market data will be partial and might not offset concerns about the recovery's strength.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Oct 2021 Backdrop of Rising Borrowing Costs Will Force Mr. Sunak to be Cautious

  • The OBR likely will revise smaller its "scarring" estimate only to 2.5% of GDP, from 3.0% previously.
  • The resulting uplift to future tax revenues will be offset by higher projections for interest payments.
  • Mr. Sunak will have little, if any, headroom in meeting his target for a balanced current budget in three years' time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence