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The estimate of public borrowing in 2021/22 almost certainly will be revised down over the coming months.
But we think public borrowing is on course to overshoot the OBR's forecast in 2022/23 and beyond.
The OBR's assumption that productivity will grow at double the pace seen in the 2010s is implausible.
Firms want to hold more stocks than in the 2010s, but now are accumulating them at a slower pace.
GDP growth depends on the rate of change in inventories, so the deceleration will depress growth.
Futures prices historically have been a better guide to energy prices than assuming they don't change.
RPI inflation will rise even more than CPI inflation in April, due to the bigger weighting of energy prices.
But house price growth is about to slow, while mortgage interest payments will rise only slowly.
Weighting differences point to a bigger drag on RPI inflation from falling energy prices next year.
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