- In one line: Continued growth in employment, and rapid wage gains, maintain the pressure for a 50bp hike next month.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
- Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Households are still refusing to draw on savings to support their consumption.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Hefty borrowing due to the high cost of energy price interventions.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: At last! A clear slowing in the rate of core price rises.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC; strong employment and wage data, but a healthier supply side performance.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Not near the nadir for activity or prices yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Builders are rightly pessimistic about the 2023 outlook.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
In one line: Still consistent with recession, but price rises haven’t slowed enough for the MPC to relax yet.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
The slowdown in the pace of core price rises in the Eurozone in November is a good omen for the U.K.
Inflation expectations among households and businesses are falling, now that a recession is taking hold.
Manufacturers’ and retailers’ excess inventory reinforces the case for expecting goods inflation to drop.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.