UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November

• In one line: The surge in mortgage rates is starting to kick in.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November/December 2022

• In one line: Continued growth in employment, and rapid wage gains, maintain the pressure for a 50bp hike next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, November 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit is being flattered by a surplus in erratics. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November

• In one line: Touch-and-go as to whether a recession has already begun, but a slump this year remains likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

• CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
• Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
• Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, November 2022

• In one line: Households are still refusing to draw on savings to support their consumption.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, November 2022

• In one line: Hefty borrowing due to the high cost of energy price interventions.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, November 2022

• In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts in the face of surging prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November 2022

• In one line: At last! A clear slowing in the rate of core price rises. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October/November 2022

• In one line: A mixed bag for the MPC; strong employment and wage data, but a healthier supply side performance.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November 2022

• In one line: Not near the nadir for activity or prices yet. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, November 2022

• In one line: Builders are rightly pessimistic about the 2023 outlook. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November 2022

• In one line: Partial recovery in Q4 will be reversed next year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, November 2022

• In one line: Car sales will remain well below pre-Covid levels, due to elevated borrowing costs. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, November 2022

In one line: Still consistent with recession, but price rises haven’t slowed enough for the MPC to relax yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Price and Wage Data are Aligning for a Smaller MPC Rate Hike this Month

The slowdown in the pace of core price rises in the Eurozone in November is a good omen for the U.K.

Inflation expectations among households and businesses are falling, now that a recession is taking hold.

Manufacturers’ and retailers’ excess inventory reinforces the case for expecting goods inflation to drop.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, November 2022

• In one line: The manufacturing sector likely is in recession.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2022

• In one line: House prices fall for the second month in a row. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November

• In one line: Consumers are tightening their belts, despite the additional government support to incomes. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November

• In one line: Resilience jars with other evidence.

Gabriella DickensU.K.