Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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5 Aug 2021 Will the MPC Finally Set Out its Views on the Lower Bound and Sequencing?

Now that negative rates are in the toolkit, the MPC might divulge its new estimate for the lower bound.
The MPC also might lower the threshold that Bank Rate must reach before it starts to wind down QE.
We expect Ofgem to announce on Friday that the default tariff cap will rise by a painful 13.5% in Q4.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 May 2021 Markets are Becoming More Responsive to Data Surprises Again

We have detected a clear shift in the importance placed by markets on the regular macro data over the last month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 May 2021 Sterling's Rally Looks Short-Sighted; IndyRef2 Still More Likely than Not

Markets responded with mild relief to last week's election results, with sterling rising by 1% to $1.41 on Monday, its highest level since February 25.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Apr 2021 The MPC Likely will Wait Another Month to Taper its Gilt Purchases

The key question for investors next week is whether the MPC will immediately taper its purchases of government bonds.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Apr 2021 The Recovery is Breaking into Its Stride, But No Dissaving Boom Yet

The glut of economic data released at the end of last week left us feeling more confident in our above-consensus forecast that GDP will rise by about 5% in Q2, following Q1's relatively modest 1.5% decline.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Apr 2021 First Dosing will be Complete by Early July, Despite April's Slowdown

Earlier this week, the U.K. government trumpeted that it had hit its April 15 target of offering a Covid-19 vaccine to all adults aged 50 or over, and to people with serious underlying health conditions, three days ahead of schedule.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Mar 2021 The Days of Strong Workforce Growth are Long Gone

The U.K. economy turned in a respectable performance in the second half of the 2010s, partly due to solid growth in the workforce, which averaged 0.8% year-over-year, lifting GDP growth.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Mar 2021 Inflation Remains Set for Lift-Off in Q2, But Not to the Moon

We warned of downside risk to the consensus forecast for CPI inflation to rise to 0.8% in February, from 0.7% in January, but the 0.4% prin t was outside of the range we thought plausible.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 Mar 2021 January's Fall in the Unemployment Rate Wasn't a Fluke

Yesterday's labour market figures confirmed that the furlough scheme has successfully halted the tide of job losses.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

The Chancellor's near-term largesse in the Budget last week makes us more confident in predicting a swift rebound in economic activity in Q2 and Q3. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR’s new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak’s second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

The Budget comes at a sensitive time for the gilt market, following the recent jump in yields.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

he OBR likely will maintain its optimistic assessment of the long-term scarring to the economy from the recent recession in its forecasts that accompany the Budget on Wednesday. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Feb 2021 Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

A political consensus is emerging that higher rates of corporation tax would be one of the least painful ways of raising tax revenues in order to control public borrowing, once the pandemic is over.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor looks set to extend existing support measures for the economy into the summer at the Budget on March 3, but he will postpone big decisions regarding new fiscal rules and the tax rises needed to meet them until the autumn.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Feb 2021 GDP Still can Recover Significantly in March, Despite Reopening Caution

The economy will rebound a little later than we had assumed previously, following the cautious plan for relaxing restrictions unveiled by the Prime Minister.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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