U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
May
- CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
- Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
- Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
- Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The improved near-term outlook for CPI inflation has left the MPC less anxious about second-round effects.
- The MPC is awaiting more details on fiscal policy; a 75bp hike in November can't be ruled out...
- ...But the proposed tax cuts will do little to boost GDP, and spending might be cut; we still expect a 50bp hike.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
- The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
- The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
- The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
- Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Households continued to save less and borrow more in July, in order to maintain consumption.
- Looking ahead, though, people lack the fire-power to withstand future income shocks.
- We now think a winter recession will be avoided only if the government beefs up financial support massively.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
