Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
We expect Ofgem to announce today that the default tariff cap will increase by 80% in October.
This will boost CPI inflation by 4pp, assuming the ONS treats the government's grant as a fiscal transfer.
Core goods inflation, however, is set to fall sharply this winter; manufacturers and retailers have excess stock.
August’s PMIs suggest the recovery has petered out, with the manufacturing sector heading into recession.
Employment growth also has come off the boil, while price pressures mostly have continued to ease.
All this suggests the MPC have room to act with caution; a 50bp hike is not the done deal assumed by markets.
Q2 GDP would have held steady without the Jubilee and risen by 0.9% q/q if Covid spending hadn't plunged.
The 0.2% q/q drop in households' real expenditure was a good result, given the massive fall in real incomes.
A recession isn't inevitable, provided fiscal support is increased substantially and households draw on savings.
PAYE data, vacancy figures and business surveys all suggest employment growth slowed in June and July.
Labour supply, however, is picking up; the unemployment rate likely was marginally higher in Q2 than in Q1.
Wages likely continued to rise in June at a rate inconsistent with the inflation target, but probably didn't speed up.
The MPC currently expects the unemployment rate to remain well below 4% until Q3 2023...
...But timely indicators suggest demand for labour already is cooling, just as supply is starting to recover.
We expect the unemployment rate to rise above 4% before year-end, keeping a lid on wages and rate hikes.
We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.
GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.
Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.
House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The BoE is considering active gilt sales that would result in a reduction in the APF of £50B-to-£100B in year one.
This implies active sales of £15B-to-£65B if they begin in Q4; we expect sales at the lower end of that range.
The CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey shows retailers’ stock levels are far too high; discounting will intensify.
Retail sales fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, as households reduced big-ticket discretionary purchases.
Real household disposable income looks set to rise in Q3, thanks to government support measures.
But even if Ms. Truss pushes through her tax cuts, incomes will drop back in the winter, impeding sales.
The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.
But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.
Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.
The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.
So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.
The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence