Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

May

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the MPC Pick Prolonged High Inflation or a Mortgage Crisis

  • A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
  • Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
  • Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Sept 2022 UK Monitor MPC Likely to Stick to Another 50bp Hike in November, Despite Tax Cuts

  • The improved near-term outlook for CPI inflation has left the MPC less anxious about second-round effects.
  • The MPC is awaiting more details on fiscal policy; a 75bp hike in November can't be ruled out...
  • ...But the proposed tax cuts will do little to boost GDP, and spending might be cut; we still expect a 50bp hike.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Sept 2022 UK Monitor August's Drop in Retail Sales Makes a 50bp Bank Rate Hike More Likely

  • The drop in August’s retail sales volumes was below consensus, but almost matched our forecast.
  • The weakness was broad based; consumers cut back on both essential and discretionary goods.
  • The larger-than-consensus fall makes a 50bp increase in Bank Rate this week more likely than a 75bp hike.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

7 Sept 2022 UK Monitor July GDP to Show the Economy has Slowed, but is Not in Recession Yet

  • We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
    GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
  • The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
  • Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

31 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Government Support Needed to Maintain Real Consumption

  • Households continued to save less and borrow more in July, in order to maintain consumption.
  • Looking ahead, though, people lack the fire-power to withstand future income shocks.
  • We now think a winter recession will be avoided only if the government beefs up financial support massively.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence