UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, May

• In one line: House prices already were falling before the renewed jump in mortgage rates. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, May 2023

• In one line: The trade deficit should start to narrow again over the second half of the year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, May 2023

• In one line: Still stagnant, in contrast to the recovery story told by the surveys.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May/June 2023

• In one line: No longer tight; expect wage growth to slow sharply in 2024.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, May 2023

• In one line: Declining liquid assets reflect lower mortgage lending, not households draining savings to spend more.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, May

• In one line: Still trending flat for now; we continue to expect a gradual recovery in H2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May 2023

• In one line: The current outlook for much higher interest payments implies no scope for pre-election tax cuts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2023

• In one line: No slowing in core consumer price rises yet, but PPI data point to a substantial deceleration soon. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April/May 2023

• In one line: Wage growth has far too much momentum for the MPC to stop hiking Bank Rate yet. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2023

• In one line: Survey does not reflect the impact of the recent rise in mortgage rates.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Report on Jobs Survey, May 2023

• In one line: Wage growth is on track to return to rates consistent with the 2% inflation target by early next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, May 2023

• In one line: Construction sector is failing to capitalise on broader economic recovery. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2023

• In one line: Still no sign of a rising trend in volumes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, May 2023

In one line: GDP probably will be flat in Q2, despite the PMI's strength.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May 2023

• In one line: Likely to remain weak, despite the improvement in consumers’ confidence. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, May 2023

• In one line: Not out of the woods yet.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2023

• In one line: House prices to fall further still.

Gabriella DickensU.K.