UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November 2023

• In one line: Further reassurance a recession isn’t developing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Autumn Statement 2023

• In one line: No major pre-election giveaways; the course is clear for the MPC to cut Bank Rate next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October 2023

• In one line: A timely reminder that considerable further fiscal consolidation is needed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, October 2023

• In one line: Well below the MPC’s forecast, thanks to slowing services CPI inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, September/October 2023

• In one line: Much slower wage growth is increasing the chances of a rate cut in H1 2024.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, September 2023

• In one line: The fall in households’ spending will be reversed in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, October 2023

• In one line: Casts doubt on the increases in the Nationwide and Halifax measures of house prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Report on Jobs Survey, October 2023

• In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, October 2023

• In one line: Another weak month, but car sales should rebound next year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, October 2023

• In one line: Labour and raw material costs are starting to fall, as demand undershoots supply.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, October 2023

In one line: Still pointing to a mild recession, but the survey is probably too downbeat. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, October 2023

• In one line: The destocking process which is weighing on manufacturing output has further to run.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, October 2023

• In one line: Not the start of a recovery, yet.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, September 2023

• In one line: Mortgage lending remains weak. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, October 2023

• In one line: Still too pessimistic a signal in our eyes. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August 2023

• In one line: Still more labour market slack than the MPC expected.  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, September 2023

• In one line: Still undershooting the OBR’s forecast, but don’t expect significant pre-election tax cuts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, September 2023

• In one line: The pick-up in month-to-month growth in prices won’t be sustained.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August/September 2023

• In one line: Wage growth is slowing quickly enough for the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% next month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, August 2023

• In one line: The trade deficit should narrow in Q4, as import prices rise less quickly than export prices. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.