U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
June
- We look for a small 0.1% month-to-month rise in GDP
in August; that’s probably the last rise for this year.
- The single-month measure of employment fell in June and July, but surveys signal modest growth in August.
- Recent wage indicators have painted a mixed picture; expect year-over-year growth to rise only modestly.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We think the MPC will raise Bank Rate by 50bp next week, despite other central banks rushing ahead...
- ...Q3 GDP is set to undershoot the MPC’s latest forecast, while the inflation outlook has improved greatly.
- Proposed tax cuts are too small to move the inflation needle, and likely will be partly funded by spending cuts.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
- We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
- For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The average household will spend less on energy over the next six months than during the last six.
- So a winter recession now looks unlikely, and the MPC can return to focussing on core CPI inflation.
- Fiscal policy will stabilise demand, not lift it; job market slack still looks set to emerge, limiting rate hikes.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
- The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
- Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Low unemployment means few homeowners will be forced to sell up, and construction already is declining.
- Landlords, however, likely will struggle to raise rents in line with the jump in their mortgage payments.
- We expect the stock of homes on the market, therefore, to rise over the next year, weighing on house prices.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
