Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: The start of a slowdown.
- Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
- Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.
- In one line: Not yet tight enough for strong underlying wage growth; slack to increase in Q4.
- Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
- The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
- We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.
- In one line: U.K. trade still failing to benefit from global upswing.
- In one line: Stagnation due largely to resurgent Covid; timelier data point to a renewed recovery in August.
- The number of workers on furlough decreased again in July, as government contributions were tapered...
- ...But usage remains high in sectors that already have fully recovered, and among financially-weak SMEs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; hidden slack will rise much more.
- The MPC's energy price assumptions for its inflation forecast are too high in the near-term, and for 2023.
- Wholesale electricity and natural gas price changes don't immediately impact the CPI...
- ...Future prices still imply that Ofgem will lower slightly the default tariff cap next year, not raise it further.
- GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
- Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
- A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too.
- From now on, the U.K. Monitor on the first Monday of each month will summarise recent forecast changes.
- We now think GDP flatlined in July, so our Q3 fore- cast, 1.5% q/q, is well below the consensus, 2.4%.
- Our 3.7% forecast for the CPI inflation in Q4—probably the peak—is below the MPC's new 4.0% estimate.
- The U.K. economy was hit harder by the pandemic and has struggled to catch up to the Eurozone since.
- Britain's faster rollout of vaccines led many to assume that it would close the gap with the Eurozone in Q3...
- ...But near-real-time indicators imply Q3 GDP growth actually was stronger in the Eurozone than the U.K.
- Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
- The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
- Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.
- In one line: Households remain stuck in a cautious mindset.
- Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
- Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
- The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.
- August's sharp fall in the composite PMI brings it in line with other indicators, which weakened in July.
- In fact, GDP likely rose at a faster rate in August than July, though it won't match its peak until year-end.
- Output prices reportedly rose at a slower pace in August, tentatively supporting the "transitory" take.
- The Delta variant is to blame for July's fall in retail sales, not the rain, zeal for dining out, or alleged shortages.
- Surveys show households were less willing to visit both shops and services providers last month.
- Retailers are unlikely to benefit from any future recovery in consumers' confidence.
- In one line: Still undershooting the OBR’s expectations, but progress soon will slow.
- In one line: Decline due to the Delta wave; underlying trend in H2 will be broadly flat.
- The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
- CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
- ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.